[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Ethereum (ETH) has posted a record staking share, but there are warnings of further short-term declines in its price performance against bitcoin (BTC).

Cointelegraph reported on Tuesday that the ETH/BTC ratio has maintained a recent bearish pattern and entered a range where it could fall a further 10 percent to around 0.026 BTC by May.

Over the past week, Ethereum has fallen about 5.5 percent against bitcoin. Charts show a "bear flag" pattern, moving within a rebound channel amid a downtrend since February. The structure technically suggests the downtrend could continue. If the channel floor breaks, around 0.026 BTC is presented as the short-term target.

A similar move has already occurred once. After breaking out of the same bear-flag pattern early this year, the ETH/BTC ratio fell about 15 percent. If the same structure repeats, there is a view that bitcoin could maintain relative strength in the short term.

Still, the possibility of a rebound remains. If ETH/BTC holds the current channel floor, there is talk it could recover to around 0.032 BTC, the upper resistance line for May. The key short-term variable is whether support holds.

On-chain indicators instead show Ethereum’s fundamentals are strengthening. Token Terminal data showed Ethereum’s staking share hit a record 32.33 percent on April 21. Some 39 million ETH were staked across about 816,578 validators, worth about $90.26 billion. This is the first time more than one-third of the total circulating supply has been locked into the network.

This structural change acts as a factor reducing market float. The Ethereum Foundation (EF) also met its early-month goal of staking 70,000 ETH, shifting its holdings to a yield-generating structure. BitMine Immersion Technologies holds about 4,976,000 ETH, and a significant portion is being staked through its own validator network.

As a result, short-term price action and the medium- to long-term supply-demand structure are diverging. A decline in tradable Ethereum supply could reduce selling pressure. If demand holds, it could have a positive effect on prices over the medium to long term.

Even so, the reasons for Ethereum’s recent relative weakness against bitcoin are clear. Bitcoin is benefiting from expanding institutional investment and inflows of corporate funds, while Ethereum is seen as less attractive as the "Ultrasound Money" narrative has weakened.

The market’s focus is narrowing to two points. One is whether the ETH/BTC ratio can defend the lower end of the bear flag and shift to a short-term rebound. The other is whether a shrinking float from rising staking leads to an improvement in spot supply-demand and eases weakness against bitcoin. Short-term charts have entered an inflection point, but changes in the supply structure are expected to have a lasting impact on Ethereum’s price.