Bitcoin has recently rebounded to around $78,000, prompting analysis that it has entered an uptrend. Another view said additional gains could be constrained because a large supply zone has built up around $84,000.

On April 21, Cointelegraph reported that the market is focusing on signs that this rebound could be more than a short-term technical recovery and may mark the start of a full-fledged rally in this cycle.

Bitcoin has risen more than 26 percent from a low of below $60,000 recorded on Feb. 6, recovering to around $75,000. In that process, SOPR, which shows investors' profit and loss status, fell to 0.62 in early February and then rose to 2.87, the highest in eight months.

CW8900, an analyst at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that "the Bitcoin SOPR ratio has already broken out of the bottom and is rising." SOPR is an indicator that shows whether investors are currently in profit or loss compared with when they first held bitcoin. When the indicator rebounds from a low, it has been interpreted as a signal that a short-term bottom has formed in bitcoin.

NUPL, another key indicator, also turned positive for the first time since early January. NUPL shows the difference between unrealised profits and losses held by market participants. CW8900 assessed this by saying, "Bitcoin's downtrend is over, and the real rally of this cycle has started." There have been cases in the past where, at the start of a bull market, NUPL stayed below zero for a prolonged period and then recovered into positive territory, with the upward trend continuing.

Some also cautioned that the near-term upside may be limited. According to bitcoin cost-basis distribution data, about 1.1 million BTC is formed at an average of $84,000. That price zone is cited as a resistance level that could weaken upward momentum, as existing holders are likely to sell at breakeven.

The nearest resistance is $78,000 because the current realised market average price is formed around that level. Above that, $83,100, the average buying price for U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, was presented as the next hurdle. Analyst AlphaBTC saw BTC/USD rising further to $84,000 to fill a Chicago Mercantile Exchange gap that occurred in early February.

The market sees it as the first key question whether bitcoin can break through the $76,000 to $78,000 resistance zone on a closing-price basis. If it clears that zone, it could be a confirmation signal that buyers have taken control, and the likelihood of a test of $84,000 could increase. Conversely, around $84,000, there remains the possibility that profit-taking supply could concentrate as the ETF average buying price and the large holder cost-basis zone overlap.

This analysis is significant in that it looked at on-chain profitability indicators and cost-basis distribution together rather than focusing on the price rebound itself. With both signals of a shift higher and zones of supply overhang presented at the same time, key price levels for bitcoin's short-term trajectory have become clearer.

The $BTC SOPR Ratio shows that $BTC has already broken out of the bottom and is rising. The bottom for $BTC was formed last February. The rally is already in progress. pic.twitter.com/rkZWgB8l0l