[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] The cryptocurrency market, which rebounded last week, could enter another volatile phase this week. As Middle East geopolitical risks and spot ETF fund flows intersect, the market is watching whether bitcoin (BTC) can defend a key support level.

On April 20 (local time), blockchain media outlet CoinDesk reported that attention is focused on whether bitcoin can hold near $74,000 as the deadline for a ceasefire between the United States and Iran approaches midweek.

Earlier, the crypto market rebounded as risk appetite returned on news that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened. It followed a drop in oil prices and a rise in both stocks and bitcoin. Tensions then rose again. Iran fired on vessels seeking to pass through the strait, and the United States seized an Iranian-flagged tanker, bringing geopolitical uncertainty back into focus.

Market participants are watching whether the risk-on trend can continue even after the ceasefire deadline. If an energy supply shock comes back into view, oil prices, stock markets and crypto markets could all be jolted at the same time.

Technically, $74,000 is cited as the dividing line. It is the range that overlaps with the average purchase price for spot bitcoin ETFs. Luke Nolan (루크 놀란), a senior research associate at CoinShares, saw bitcoin's ability to hold that level steadily as a condition for further gains.

He added that bitcoin needs to clearly rise above the ETF cost basis line to confirm the risk-on shift already seen in fund flows. Spot bitcoin ETFs have in fact returned to net inflows for three straight trading days. He said a faster pace of inflows could support additional gains.

If the $74,000 level breaks, the possibility of greater volatility cannot be ruled out. In particular, there are warnings that downside pressure could increase if geopolitical risks flare again after the ceasefire deadline.

This week also brings overlapping variables from macroeconomic indicators and traditional finance schedules. Key releases are due, including inflation data from Canada, Britain and Japan, as well as U.S. initial jobless claims and a consumer sentiment index. All could affect expectations for monetary policy and risk appetite.

Corporate earnings are also a factor. Tesla, CME Group and Nasdaq are scheduled to report results, raising the possibility of spillover to crypto markets if sentiment toward technology stocks wavers.

On the regulatory calendar, the deadline for submitting comments on a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) advance notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets is April 30. On token supply, unlocks are scheduled for April 23 for Toncoin (TON), April 25 for Avalanche (AVAX) and Humanity Protocol, and April 26 for Plasma (XPL).

Also scheduled this week are the 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Festival (April 20 to 23), Solana Economic Zone Dubai 2026 (April 22 to 23), the VanEck Southern California Blockchain Conference (April 23 to 24), and an AI and crypto fraud and asset recovery event in London (AI & Crypto Fraud and Asset Recovery).

Investors are expected to head into the week focused on the direction of geopolitical risks, whether ETF inflows continue, and whether bitcoin can defend a key price zone.