Bitcoin is extending its rebound despite rising tensions between the United States and Iran, with the market viewing $81,000 as a key near-term resistance level.

On April 20, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin slipped below $74,000 due to selling pressure just before the weekly close, but recovered some ground as the new week began. The level the market is watching first is $78,400, the 21-week simple moving average (SMA). Crypto trader Rekt Capital (렉트 캐피털) said Bitcoin is facing resistance at the 21-week level and saw scope for a bullish breakout confirmation if it successfully retests the $73,000 area.

Near-term views are mixed. CrypNuevo (크립누에보) expected Bitcoin to remain range-bound over the next month with $80,000 as the upper end. By contrast, Michaël van de Poppe (미카엘 반 데 포페) put more weight on the possibility of further gains beyond last week’s local high. He said on April 20 that Bitcoin posted a relatively strong rebound and assessed that risk-off sentiment had not expanded excessively, citing a decline in gold prices.

Technically, $81,000 was presented as the most important resistance level. Market analysis platform Decode cited Elliott Wave analysis to label the area the bull market’s "final boss" for Bitcoin. Decode said Bitcoin remains pinned below the 21-week level but the overall trend is not bad, and explained that a break above $81,000 could substantially reduce the near-term bearish scenario.

The reason the level is drawing attention is that it overlaps with spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors’ average purchase price. The average entry price for institutional investors in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was calculated at $81,000. The average cost basis for short-term holders has also climbed to $83,500.

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said it analysed that the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR) is currently moving near the breakeven level. It noted that if the indicator stays stably above 1, it means short-term holders have re-entered profit territory, which the market generally interprets as a positive signal.

Fund flows are also supportive. More than 25,000 BTC flowed into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past five trading days. Data compiled by Farside Investors showed net inflows on April 18 alone exceeded $660 million, the largest daily total since January. CryptoQuant said the recent scale of spot ETF accumulation is meaningful and added that ETF holdings in BTC terms have recovered to their highest level since November 2025.

External variables remain. The market is wary that a renewed diplomatic clash between the United States and Iran could again spur oil prices and inflation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rebounded to around $90 a barrel as expectations of a ceasefire weakened.

Equity markets are also being affected. S&P 500 futures fell about 0.6 percent early in the week, reflecting broader caution across risk assets.

On-chain indicators also suggest it is too early to speak of a full shift to a bull trend. Glassnode analysed that Bitcoin has been trading below the current "true market mean" for more than 75 days. Senior analyst Cryptovizart (크립토비즈아트) said there have been 10 such instances since 2016, with durations ranging from 2 days to more than 11 months, and assessed that the current down phase is relatively mild compared with the past. He warned, however, that 75 days is still an early stage, and that in 2018 and 2022 it took 5 to 9 months to confirm a bottom.

Ultimately, this week’s key question for the Bitcoin market is whether ETF inflows can support prices despite geopolitical tension. Whether it can clear resistance around $78,400 and then the $81,000 zone in sequence is emerging as a factor that will determine the near-term trend.

GM ☕️ Last week we have seen - - One of the highest inflows into #bitcoin ETPs. - Record bitcoin purchases by $MSTR. Yet, $BTC has failed to reclaim the ETF cost basis (~$81k). Let's watch... pic.twitter.com/qVD76JobLY