[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Nvidia shares have rebounded about 23 percent from a late-March low and are testing a break above a key resistance line. Analysis pointing to a bitcoin (BTC)-like pattern in chart signals and volatility has also drawn attention to the potential for further gains.
On April 20 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that Nvidia is forming a bull flag pattern near resistance at $201.75. If it breaks through that level, it could have room to rise further to around $250, it said.
Nvidia shares hit a low of $164.04 on March 30 before rebounding recently to $201.75. They are now fluctuating in the $199 range below resistance. Over the same period, bitcoin also rebounded from $64,869 on March 29 to $78,380 on April 17. Both assets appear to be moving through similar consolidation below resistance after forming highs.
Volatility indicators also show similarities between the two assets. Nvidia’s 30-day annualised volatility was 27.7 percent, while bitcoin posted 27.8 percent. That is higher than the S&P 500 at 14.9 percent and the Nasdaq 100 at 18.4 percent, as well as major tech stocks such as Apple at 18.4 percent and Microsoft at 24.6 percent.
Market attention is also turning to the options market. Nvidia’s put-call ratio was 0.74 by trading volume and 0.89 by open interest at the March low, but it has recently fallen to 0.59 and 0.84, respectively. That means put positions for downside protection have been reduced faster than calls. The outlet analysed this as the options desk not actively buying downside insurance against resistance at $201.75.
A U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling was cited as a backdrop for the shift. After the court found the reciprocal tariff policy from former President Donald Trump’s period to be illegal, the U.S. government began a large-scale tariff refund process. Refunds of up to $166.0 billion, rather than about $33.0 billion, are expected within 60 to 90 days, which could help ease Nvidia’s import cost burden, according to the assessment.
Nvidia is a company with high reliance on imported components in the global semiconductor supply chain. If tariff burdens fall, pressure on costs for building artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure could also ease. The fact that downside hedging, which typically increases near resistance, has instead declined was cited as a notable move.
Fund flow indicators are also positive. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is now at 0.21, turning positive from around minus 0.25 at the March low. That suggests actual funds flowed into the recent upswing.
Still, the bullish scenario is not confirmed. Technically, Nvidia must break above $201.75 on a daily close for the bull flag target to hold. In that case, a further gain of about 23 percent would be possible, and an extended target is suggested at around $253. The market sees the area around $250 as a key target zone, aligning with horizontal resistance at $248.
Intermediate resistance levels are suggested at $211 and $227. A pullback into the $191 range would not be hard to view as a structural breakdown, but if it forms a daily close below $185, the bullish scenario could weaken. Ultimately, Nvidia’s next direction is expected to be determined by whether it breaks through resistance at $201.75.