An analysis says stablecoins are unlikely in the short term to eat into U.S. banks' market share.

Blockchain outlet Cointelegraph reported on April 19 local time that Avi Srivastava (아비 스리바스타바), a vice president in the digital economy group at global credit ratings firm Moody's Investors Service, said stablecoins at the current adoption stage have a limited impact on the banking sector.

He cited the fact that the existing U.S. payment system is already fast, low-cost and trusted. He also pointed to a ban on interest-bearing stablecoins as a factor that reduces incentives to replace bank deposits.

He said the picture could change if the market grows. "Stablecoin usage so far has been limited, but market capitalization exceeded $300 billion late last year," Srivastava said. He also mentioned that stablecoins are playing a larger role in payments, cross-border commerce and on-chain finance.

Moody's said banks could face structural pressure if stablecoins and real-world assets (RWA) grow together. "If such assets increase their market capitalization, they can put pressure on the banking sector," Srivastava said, adding that this could lead to deposit outflows and reduced lending capacity. The current impact is small, but the cumulative effect of broader adoption could weigh on banks' funding base and lending function.

Crypto regulation bills under discussion in the U.S. Congress are also emerging as a variable for the spread of stablecoins. The 2025 Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as CLARITY, is a comprehensive regulatory framework covering an asset classification system for the crypto market, regulatory authority and a supervisory structure. But processing has stalled in Congress due to industry backlash over the draft bill.

One point of contention was the lack of legal protections for open-source software developers, and another was the ban on interest-bearing stablecoins. Some crypto industry companies led by Coinbase have publicly opposed such provisions. Other industry figures and market analysts warned that without passage of CLARITY, the crypto industry could become more vulnerable to tougher regulation by hostile lawmakers or authorities in the future.

Against this backdrop, U.S. political circles are seeking a compromise that both the crypto industry and the banking sector can accept. Earlier this month, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis said he would release a revised draft acceptable to both sides, but Politico reported the plan has faced pushback and has not yet been made public.

Ultimately, the short-term picture is clear. In the United States, existing payment infrastructure and regulatory barriers are slowing the pace at which stablecoins could replace banks. Still, if the use of stablecoins in payments and the RWA market continue to grow, the currently limited impact could still lead to changes in the competitive landscape for banks over the medium to long term.

The discussion shows that institutional design around stablecoins could have a larger impact on the banking sector than the pace of their adoption. Payment infrastructure and whether interest income is allowed have emerged as key variables shaping the competitive landscape.