[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin rose last week but slid to around $74,000 on geopolitical issues, returning to a weak market.
On April 19 (all times local), Cointelegraph reported that selling pressure spread across the broader cryptocurrency market as renewed fears of war between the United States and Iran, along with news Iran could reclose the Strait of Hormuz, stoked oil price anxiety.
Bitcoin climbed as high as $78,400 on April 18, its highest level in 10 weeks, but later gave back a large part of the gains. Over the weekend, expectations for a ceasefire and the possibility of mutual agreement over the United States and Iran weakened, and markets reacted again to geopolitical risk. As the Strait of Hormuz blockade came back into focus, moves in the crude oil futures market emerged as a key variable. When ceasefire expectations were reflected, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell below $80 a barrel.
Market participants saw heightened short-term swings in sentiment. Market analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter previously forecast that "Sunday will be a tumultuous day." Optimism held even as bitcoin hovered near a short-term peak, but caution that the direction could change abruptly persisted.
Another analytics firm, Material Indicators, mentioned the need for risk management, saying, "Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish right now, but it can change abruptly within days even with a single tweet." That means geopolitical issues and social media statements are simultaneously acting as drivers of volatility.
In derivatives markets, long-position liquidations increased. CoinGlass data showed total liquidations across the cryptocurrency market amounted to $260 million over the past 24 hours. As bitcoin prices retraced, funds betting on gains were hit first.
Some also raised the possibility that a price gap could form after futures markets open. Trader Dan Crypto Trades said a gap could form in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) bitcoin futures due to the weekend decline. "It will be interesting to see the futures open today and how oil will react to the recent headlines regarding the strait," he said. Gaps in the bitcoin futures market are often cited as factors that pull short-term prices early in the new trading week.
Technically, weekly resistance was also confirmed. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that bitcoin is being pushed back at the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $78,900. He said alongside a weekly chart that "bitcoin is facing resistance at the 21-week EMA."
As a result, markets are watching both the early-week reaction in oil and whether bitcoin can defend the $74,000 level. If Middle East tensions expand again, volatility could increase across commodities and risk assets, and bitcoin has entered a zone where geopolitical risk, futures-market flows and resistance at key moving averages are all acting at the same time in the short term.
$BTC On track to open with a big gap this weekend. It's going to be interesting to see the futures open today and how $OIL will react to the recent headlines regarding the strait. pic.twitter.com/CWId5RWKDK