An analysis says the market cycle since the 2024 bitcoin halving has shown a distinctly weaker trend than in the previous three halvings.

On April 19, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that Alex Thorn (알렉스 손), head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy Digital, assessed that the current bitcoin market has seen both gains and volatility slow sharply compared with the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halving cycles.

Thorn compared bitcoin’s price path after the April 2024 halving with the prior three halving phases. He said bitcoin rose from about $63,000 at the time of the halving to an all-time high above $125,000 recorded in October 2025, but the gain was limited to 97 percent. By contrast, the 2012 halving cycle rose about 9,294 percent to around $1,163, while 2016 climbed about 2,950 percent to $19,891. The gain after the 2020 halving was also about 761 percent.

He added: "Cycle 4 dramatically underperforming prior cycles" and "Is this the new normal? Or is it the new normal (until it isn’t)?" The core of the analysis is that more than the halving effect itself, the traditional four-year cycle pattern bitcoin has shown after halvings is weakening.

Shrinking volatility was also cited as part of the same trend. Based on Bitbo data, bitcoin’s 30-day volatility index surged to 9.64 percent on April 2, 2020, but in the current cycle it did not exceed 3.11 percent recorded on Aug. 24, 2024. The latest 30-day estimate is 1.75 percent. Thorn said that as such figures accumulate, bitcoin prices could be more strongly influenced by factors other than the halving or the four-year cycle theory.

Still, there is also criticism that such comparisons do not fully reflect the current market structure. In March 2024, a month before the April 2024 halving, bitcoin already set a then record high above $70,000. That is interpreted as largely due to inflows after approval of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds driving prices higher. As a result, with a large rise already priced in before the halving, an opposing view has also been raised that the cycle can appear relatively weaker when judged only by post-halving performance.

In terms of drawdowns, differences from the past are also evident. Jack Wainwright (잭 웨인라이트), an analyst at asset manager Fidelity, pointed out that declines in past bitcoin bear markets were generally about 80 to 90 percent. This time, even the fall from a peak above $125,000 to $60,000 amounted to just over a 50 percent decline. It implies that while upside momentum has weakened, downside moves have also become more moderate than in the past.

The market is also focused on whether a bottom is forming after sharp rises and falls this year. Jan van Eck (얀 반에크), chief executive officer of VanEck, said in March that bitcoin was nearing a low and had expected prices to rise gradually again from 2026.

This trend is becoming an indicator of whether the bitcoin market’s benchmark is shifting from the halving to institutional funds and product structure. As analysis that the current cycle is weaker than in the past and counterarguments that pre-halving ETF effects distorted performance comparisons confront each other, the next point of attention is which variables bitcoin prices will be more sensitive to going forward.

cycle 4 dramatically underperforming prior cycles is this the new normal? or is it the new normal (until it isn’t)? pic.twitter.com/Y26fWAz24u