On Polymarket, the probability that the Strait of Hormuz will restore normal passage by May 31, 2026 was priced at 73%. Cointelegraph reported on Thursday that the probability surged after news that Iranian authorities temporarily opened the strait as part of a ceasefire agreement.

The probability briefly rose to 82% before falling back to 73%. By contrast, the probability that normal activity will resume by the end of April stood at 40%. The immediate trigger was an announcement by Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi (세예드 아바스 아락치). Araghchi said in a post on X that the Strait of Hormuz is open.

The impact of the Iran war spread across financial markets. Energy prices and cryptocurrency prices swung with political developments, and bitcoin briefly touched $78,000 after news of the temporary reopening under the ceasefire, before slipping to around $77,358 at the time of writing.

Cryptocurrency market analyst Nick Puckrin said the ceasefire announced in April between the United States and Iran is fragile. He said key issues remain unresolved and that the fallout from the latest clash could weigh on most financial markets in 2026. He also forecast that even if rate cuts happen, the earliest would be in the third quarter of 2026.

Puckrin said bitcoin would need a ceasefire strong enough to end geopolitical tensions, a sustained drop in oil prices to around $80, and unexpectedly weak economic data that eases stagflation fears to regain $90,000.

U.S. President Donald Trump said a U.S. naval blockade of Iran would remain in place until trade with Iran is completed 100%.