Ethereum is at a crossroads near $2,400 that could determine its next direction.

Blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported on April 16 that Ethereum is trading at $2,355, aligned with its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). It flagged $2,397 as the key area that will determine the short-term trend.

Price action tilts toward a potential rise. Ethereum formed a bottom near $1,800 on Feb. 24 and has been moving within an upward channel on the daily chart. The smart money index (SMI) has also continued to rise after breaking above the baseline of 0 in early April. The indicator is used to estimate positions of informed participants based on price moves at the market open and the last 30 minutes before the close. The SMI holding above 0 shows key participants are preparing for the possibility of further gains.

Whale wallets and the derivatives market, however, are sending mixed signals. On-chain analytics firm Santiment showed whale holdings excluding exchange balances fell over the past 24 hours to 123.44 million ETH from 123.61 million ETH. The reduction is about 170,000 ETH. That suggests position trimming is emerging rather than fresh buying.

Derivatives markets also leaned toward caution. Open interest (OI) fell to $11.98 billion from $12.31 billion on April 14. Funding rates turned to minus 0.005 percent from plus 0.011 percent, showing short positions are increasing relative to longs. Still, short positions have not built up sharply. Whales also appear to be responding in a hedging manner rather than betting aggressively on an Ethereum decline.

$2,397 is the level that will resolve the clash. The area marks the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and overlaps with the $2,400 zone watched by the market. A daily close above $2,397 would confirm the bullish signal indicated by the SMI. In that case, Ethereum would reclaim the key Fibonacci area and turn the 100-day line into support, with $2,523 suggested as the next target where it meets the top of the upward channel.

If Ethereum fails to regain $2,397, the case for whales trimming positions gains more weight. The first support is $2,299, the 0.618 Fibonacci level. If that breaks, $2,230 and $2,160 would open up in turn. A deeper downside risk zone of $1,936 was also suggested, but reaching that level would require the entire upward channel held since Feb. 24 to collapse.

The key is $2,397. A daily close above it would tilt the call toward smart money, while another rejection there would make the whale selling view more convincing. The market is watching who takes control near $2,400 more than the price itself.