Bitcoin has rebounded to the $74,000 level, but an analysis says demand is still insufficient to break through resistance near $78,000.

Coinpost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on April 16 local time that on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said in its latest weekly report the rebound remains a "flow-driven fragile rebound."

Glassnode put the true market mean (TMM), an indicator reflecting the average entry price of market participants, at $78,100. It said the current price is about 5 percent below that level, and while a medium-term upside break remains possible, strong buying is needed for a stable move above it. It singled out the area around $78,000 as a zone where profit-taking and selling pressure can easily concentrate.

The share of short-term holders in profit was tallied at 43.2 percent. That is below 54.2 percent, which is cited as a benchmark for forming local tops in a bear market. Glassnode judged that this indicator alone suggests there is room in the short term for additional gains toward the TMM level. It also pointed to a realised profit-to-loss ratio of 1.16 on a 30-day exponential moving average basis, saying profit-taking continues to outweigh stop-loss selling. Glassnode explained that in a bear market, a rise in this ratio can be a warning signal that it represents a "wave of selling supply."

Sentiment in the spot market has improved compared with earlier. After the sharp drop in February, spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) improved sharply, turning positive from deep negative territory. That means the market has moved from an aggressive selling phase to a spot accumulation phase, an assessment that it said also aligns with the recent trend of price stabilisation.

Demand recovery, however, was uneven. While spot price gains were led by offshore exchanges centred on Binance and retail investors, Coinbase cumulative volume delta, which is seen as a relatively good gauge of institutional flows, was presented as weak. Glassnode said "the full-scale return of institutional investors is being delayed," and analysed that the current demand gap remains a constraining factor for the market because a sustained rise would require joint inflows from retail and institutions.

Moves in institutional money were also far from a complete shift to risk-on. Open interest in Chicago Mercantile Exchange bitcoin futures and assets under management in U.S. spot exchange-traded funds showed signs of recovery, but both were far below previous peaks. ETF inflows were also assessed as not the strong and sustained flow seen at the start of the cycle. Glassnode interpreted this as a "more cautious signal of a return to the market."

In derivatives markets, it analysed that liquidation flows have a bigger impact than direction. Based on Hyperliquid liquidation data, liquidity is concentrated around current price levels, and the perpetual futures market is centred on short-term tactical positions that react quickly. On the downside, long-position liquidation zones are clustered in the $63,000 to $65,000 range. It said repeated tests of this range trigger forced selling, forming a structure in which the market absorbs it.

On the upside, short-position liquidation clusters are dense around $74,000 to $76,000. During the recent rebound, this zone was tested several times but did not lead to a clear upside break. That means upper liquidity is acting as a factor that restrains price gains.

In the options market, implied volatility across the curve has fallen. One-month implied volatility was about 42.6 percent, slightly lower than three-month implied volatility, and was presented as a state in which short-term risk is not heavily priced in. Glassnode analysed that the market does not view recent news or geopolitical risks as persistent drivers of volatility. It added that 25-delta skew remains put-dominated, indicating demand for downside protection remains strong.

Glassnode summarised that signs of market stabilisation are appearing across spot, derivatives and on-chain indicators, but the recovery remains uneven. As a result, it said expectations are emerging that whether bitcoin can stably clear the $78,000 range depends on whether institutional money actually returns in addition to retail demand.