Bitcoin's low for this cycle is likely to form around October 2026, a forecast shows.

On April 15, blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported that Benjamin Cowen (벤저민 코웬), CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, sees a similar time structure continuing in this cycle compared with the past two.

Cowen pointed out that this cycle's peak formed within about a week of the timing of the peaks in the previous two cycles. If the pattern holds, he said, a low is likely to come about a year after the peak. He presented October 2026 as his base scenario.

He did not completely rule out the possibility of an earlier low. Cowen said Bitcoin could hit a bottom as early as May, but that would require selling pressure far larger than the typical pattern seen in midterm-election years. He also said that as long as Bitcoin's year-to-date return in 2026 stays within the standard-deviation range of the historical midterm-year average, it is unlikely to move outside that range early.

Cowen said the way the peak formed in this cycle differed from the past. In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin peaked amid retail-investor enthusiasm and then funds moved into altcoins. This time, he said, Bitcoin formed a peak while social interest in crypto has weakened since 2021, and as a result the usual altcoin rotation did not appear.

Bitcoin has risen more than 12 percent since Feb. 28 despite a war between the United States and Iran. It is currently priced at $73,831, more than 40 percent below the record high of about $126,000 set in October 2025. Cowen said the four-year cycle itself is still holding even in this trend.