[DigitalToday reporter Yunseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP has climbed to $1.39 and is at a short-term turning point. On April 15 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto said XRP has entered one of its strongest compression phases since its January peak of $2.42. It said a short-term rebound structure remains, but the broader trend is still in bearish territory.

On the upside, $1.42 to $1.44 is the first test. This range overlaps with $1.4244, the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. Above that, a resistance zone with heavy accumulated trading volume sits at $1.55 to $1.60, the price band with the most trading since the sharp drop in February. Even if XRP rebounds to that area, a failed breakout could turn the rise into a trap.

The daily chart remains heavy. The relative strength index (RSI) is around 40 to 45, staying below the neutral line of 50.

Trading volume has also continued to fall since February. With fewer market participants and price compressing into a narrow range, it is read as a signal that increased volatility is imminent.

On-chain indicators show a similar pattern. Santiment data show the number of whale transactions of $100,000 or more was highest in early January around XRP's peak range, and recorded the largest surge across the period during the $1.12 plunge on Feb. 5 to 6. Whale transactions then fell quickly, and April figures dropped to the quietest level since last December. That implies the market is staying in a compression zone just ahead of a breakout until whales move again.

The scenario the market is watching splits in two. On the upside, if the 4-hour chart settles above $1.37 and volume rises, a recovery of the midline is confirmed. The next targets are $1.42, then $1.55 to $1.60. If it clears $1.60 on strong volume, it could ultimately open to $1.92, the 0.618 Fibonacci zone. That would imply about 40 percent upside from the current price. This bullish setup is invalidated if the price falls below $1.28 on a daily closing basis.

On the downside, if it fails to hold $1.39 and volume also shrinks, the $1.28 to $1.30 support zone is immediately tested. This price band also overlaps with the lower edge of the rising channel. In particular, if it drops below $1.28 and whale transactions surge again, the short-term rising channel breaks down completely and the likelihood increases of a retest of the February low of $1.12. The bearish scenario is invalidated if the price breaks above $1.44 on a daily closing basis.

Ultimately, XRP's direction depends on whether it holds $1.39 support, whether it defends $1.28, and whether rising volume and a resumption of whale transactions are confirmed together. Prices are flat, but the market has entered a phase of preparing for the next big swing.