Inflow volumes to exchanges from holders of 1 bitcoin or more have fallen to their lowest level since 2018, rapidly shrinking spot supply in the market. On April 15, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto analysed this as showing that large holders' selling pressure is easing and that circulating bitcoin is becoming less liquid.

By exchange, Binance’s monthly average deposits of 1 bitcoin or more are currently tallied at about 6,000 bitcoin. That is sharply down from 15,400 bitcoin recorded in 2021. Across global exchanges, transfers of 1 bitcoin or more have also fallen to about 27,500 bitcoin, and the drop is more pronounced compared with the 2018 peak of 80,000 bitcoin.

As a backdrop to this trend, the report cites a shrinking pool of investors able to hold a full 1 bitcoin as prices rise. It also points to the spread of trading platforms and the introduction of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024, which allowed investors to gain price exposure without holding bitcoin directly. A growing share of investors choosing long-term holding strategies also supports the decline in exchange transfers.

On-chain analyst Darkfost analysed the trend as showing that the number of 1-bitcoin holders active on exchanges is declining. He said a significant portion of bitcoin supply is becoming increasingly illiquid over time as selling pressure shrinks. This suggests the supply decline is not a temporary phenomenon but is progressing alongside structural changes in the market.

Short-term holders, in contrast, showed a different move. As bitcoin tested the $75,000 level, short-term holders sent more than 65,000 bitcoin to exchanges over 24 hours. Of that, 61,000 bitcoin moved from positions in profit. It is read as a signal that some investors are using each price rebound as a chance to sell.

In derivatives markets, the opposite positioning is building. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that as bitcoin tested resistance for a third time, funding rates turned negative and open interest (OI) increased. He said excessive leveraged short positions have built up in the market, and that as long as bitcoin holds above $72,000 it is better to look for longs rather than shorts. He also suggested $85,000 to $88,000 as the next resistance zone if bitcoin breaks above $75,000.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. assessed that the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Index has moved above zero, exiting the bearish zone. But he warned that network profit-and-loss sentiment remains underwater, and that the current move is closer to a recovery phase than to entering a new bull market.

Geopolitical variables are also in focus. U.S. President Donald Trump signalled diplomatic coordination with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the Strait of Hormuz, adding an external variable to the supply-tightening trend. With long-term holders moving coins off exchanges, short-term holders taking profits and short positions expanding in derivatives markets at the same time, how bitcoin moves through key resistance zones is expected to emerge as a short-term focal point.

Bitcoin structure just turned positive. Bull-Bear Index flipped above zero. Bear zone: fully cleared. But the internal picture still lags. Price recovered. Network P/L sentiment is still underwater. This is a recovery - not a new bull regime. Morning Brief 148 … pic.twitter.com/qhkBxzwmoW