[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Ethereum has been stuck in a months-long range and has entered a volatile phase.

BeInCrypto, a blockchain media outlet, reported on April 13 that recent charts show a clear volatility squeeze. The market is signaling that a big move is imminent, either a strong rebound or further decline.

The key now is whether it breaks above the top of a long-term falling wedge. Ethereum has traded within a falling wedge, with both lows and highs declining, since the peak in October 2025. As the structure approaches its apex around late April to early May 2026, the time to determine direction is also approaching quickly.

By price level, $2,436 was presented as the most important upper resistance. This area is the 0.618 level of a macro Fibonacci retracement drawn from the roughly $880 low in June 2022 and the $4,956 high in August 2025. On the other hand, $1,752 is the 0.786 level and was cited as a key support near the final line of defense if the lower end breaks down.

On short-term charts, the $2,300 to $2,400 zone repeatedly appeared as a resistance area. It is where selling pressure was confirmed twice, in mid-March and early April. By contrast, $1,900 to $2,000 was presented as a buying zone that has absorbed multiple declines. As buying has flowed in whenever the price fell into this green demand zone, it was cited as the first area to check in the event of further correction.

The Bollinger Band Width Percentile, or BBWP, is another factor adding to market tension. On the 4-hour chart, BBWP surged to near 100 percent during the February plunge to $1,750, the March rebound to $2,380 and the early April phase of confirming resistance. That means each sharp rise or fall appeared alongside a volatility peak. But after April's swings, BBWP is quickly compressing again. This indicates volatility has fallen sharply and suggests the market has entered a coiling phase ahead of the next explosive move.

In the bullish scenario, the benchmark is a break above $2,436. If it clears both the upper trend line and the resistance zone, it could be interpreted as a signal that buyers have taken control. In that case, the first target was set at $2,917, the Fibonacci 0.5 level, followed by $3,397, the 0.382 level. If BBWP surges during the breakout, it can be seen as real volatility expansion rather than a false breakout. The view that the falling wedge itself is a typical bullish reversal pattern was also cited as a basis for the upside scenario.

In the bearish scenario, the key is a breakdown below the $1,900 to $2,000 zone. If both the lower trend line and the demand zone collapse, it can be viewed as sellers taking the upper hand. In that case, the immediate downside target is $1,752, which is mentioned as a macro support that must hold to prevent a deeper decline. If BBWP also spikes, a high-volatility drop could take hold and accelerate selling. If $1,752 is also lost, even the existing bullish structure could be invalidated.

Ultimately, the market is looking first at 'zones' rather than 'direction'. On the upside, $2,300 to $2,436 was presented as the benchmark, while on the downside $1,900 to $2,000 and $1,752 were cited as the lines that could determine the next trend. As the falling wedge convergence point draws closer, from late April to early May, Ethereum is closer to a major directional decision than to a short-term range.