An analysis says the bitcoin market has already priced in much of the threat from quantum computers.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on April 13 that investment bank Bernstein said bitcoin’s sharp decline had already reflected a range of risk factors, including quantum-security concerns.

Bernstein cited bitcoin’s roughly 50 percent fall from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198. It said the market has factored in some of the fear around the possibility of a quantum breakthrough. It added that while the threat is real, it does not see an immediate risk that would shake bitcoin’s existence.

The analysis follows a study released by Google researchers two weeks ago. The study said future quantum computers, in some structures, could break elliptic-curve cryptography used on many blockchains with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. It also presented a scenario in which bitcoin private keys could be decrypted in 9 minutes in theory. That is shorter than bitcoin’s average 10-minute block time and has reignited debate over shifting the bitcoin network to quantum resistance.

Bernstein said Bitcoin Core developers have enough time to set a path for a post-quantum upgrade. Bernstein said last week that bitcoin has 3 to 5 years to prepare for a quantum-security upgrade.

It also mentioned the role of market participants. Bernstein said large institutions, including exchange-traded fund issuers and corporate buyers such as Strategy, are likely to play a constructive role in reaching agreement on future upgrades. It also said that because bitcoin is a $1.5 trillion asset, developers’ slow consensus process can be seen as a responsible response.

One proposal being discussed is BIP-360. The draft proposes a pay-to-merkle-root (P2MR) output type to reduce key-path vulnerabilities in Taproot. It focuses on lowering quantum risk for exposed bitcoin addresses, but it does not itself add post-quantum digital signatures. Bernstein said the proposal could be introduced as a soft fork. It added that even then, about 8 percent of total BTC supply of 21 million, tied up in inactive addresses, could still be vulnerable to a future quantum breakthrough.

Another view is that the bigger problem than the technology is a network-wide transition. Tezos co-founder Arthur Breitman (아서 브라이트만) said the task of shifting bitcoin to quantum resistance is closer to social adoption than technology. He said, "The coding work could be finished by this afternoon," but added that in practice bitcoin holders would have to move to a new standard. He said, "Technically it’s possible within a month, but you can’t make everyone move their keys within a month," and added that key migration would take years.

Zach Pandl (잭 팬들), head of research at asset manager Grayscale, expressed a similar view. He said, "Bitcoin’s quantum-security task is a social issue rather than a technical issue." He cited bitcoin’s UTXO model having no native smart contracts and that some address types have lower quantum vulnerability. He warned, however, that the community needs consensus on how to move wallets that have lost private keys or cannot be accessed to a quantum-resistant structure.

Ultimately, the current issue is not whether the quantum-computer threat exists, but how quickly and in what way the bitcoin network can change security standards. The market has already reflected some of the risk, but the upgrade stage is increasingly likely to hinge on developers’ judgment, participation by institutional holders and a long-term user migration.