[DigitalToday reporter Yeseul Kim (김예슬)] Tom Lee, a co-founder of Fundstrat, said an Iran ceasefire suggests the U.S. stock market has passed a bottom, and that the trend could extend to cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum.

On April 9 (all times local), CoinDesk reported that Lee said in a CNBC interview that further gains could begin in earnest if the S&P 500 rises above 6,617, its 200-day moving average. E-mini futures traded around 6,820 on the morning of April 10, already above Lee's threshold. Bitcoin also rose above $72,000 late on April 9, while S&P 500 futures gained 1.9 percent around the same time. Lee said stocks, metals and cryptocurrencies have moved together in response to the same geopolitical factor since the war began.

Lee cited 2 reasons. From mid-March to early April, even as the war intensified and oil prices climbed to $116 from $87, the S&P 500 rose to 6,600 from 6,300. He judged that the market absorbed war risk without breaking down. He also saw the ceasefire as a positive inflection point as the situation shifted from escalation to easing. In fact, within a day, stocks rose 2.5 percent, oil prices fell 15 percent and the VIX dropped below 20.

On-chain indicators also align with the timing. Bitcoin's realized price is $54,286, 21 percent below the spot price. The original text described this as close to a range that has pointed to past cycle bottoms, excluding sharp selloffs. The fear and greed index stayed in single digits over the past month, and bitcoin ETF inflows in March held around 50,000 BTC a month.

Ethereum also has its own catalyst. The Ethereum Foundation completed its staking target of 70,000 ETH last week. That means tokens worth $143 million shifted toward generating returns instead of being sold on the market. Spot ether ETFs saw $120 million in inflows on April 7, the highest level since mid-March.

The key variable ahead is whether the ceasefire holds. Iran's parliament said late on April 9 that 3 ceasefire clauses had already been violated. The Strait of Hormuz also remains effectively closed. After falling 15 percent on April 9, oil prices rose 2 percent on April 10 to $97. If the ceasefire breaks down, stocks and cryptocurrencies could test lows again.