An analysis says XRP is again showing 3 key signals that appeared just before its sharp rise in November 2024.

According to blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic on Monday, XRP started from around $0.50 in November 2024, shortly after Donald Trump was elected U.S. president, and jumped to $3.40 in January 2025, rising more than sixfold in just a few months. XRP is currently trading at about $1.39 and facing short-term selling pressure. On-chain and liquidity indicators suggest conditions similar to the past are forming, the report said.

Market analyst Xaif cited CryptoQuant data and pointed first to rising exchange inflows as a signal. He focused on growing amounts of XRP moving to Binance. Exchange inflows are generally interpreted as a sign of mounting selling pressure, but he said that around the November 2024 rally, large XRP inflows to Binance were followed not by a sharp price drop but by an upward move accompanied by volatility. He said multiple large inflows were detected at the time in the billions to tens of billions of XRP, yet the price continued a strong rise after a correction.

The second signal is a decline in U.S. dollar liquidity in AMM pools. Xaif said that when the amount of capital supporting the market shrinks, order books become thinner, increasing the likelihood that prices move sharply in one direction. Just before the November 2024 surge, daily USD liquidity in AMM pools narrowed from around $2.5 million to a range of $1.5 million to $2.5 million. As of February 2026, USD liquidity has also fallen to a range of $1.9 million to $2.1 million, and he said conditions similar to the earlier breakout zone are reappearing.

The third signal is liquidity compression in XRP itself. Liquidity in AMM pools, which averaged about 5.8 million XRP in August to September 2024, fell to 5.0 million XRP in October and plunged to 1.5 million XRP in November. XRP later rose to $3.40 in January 2025. Current XRP liquidity has again shrunk, down to an average of about 1,385,000 XRP a day. Xaif's logic is that if demand comes in while supply is reduced, the price can rise quickly.

Xaif predicted that if these three signals reappear at the same time, it cannot be ruled out that XRP could rise about 619% from its current price to reach $10. He stressed, however, that it would be rash to draw conclusions based only on these on-chain indicators. He said additional checks are needed, including derivatives positioning, funding rates and the overall market structure.