[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] XRP is trading in the $1.31 range and has yet to break out of a falling parallel channel that has continued since March 17 local time. Blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported on April 3 that XRP rose as high as $1.60 at one point last month, then showed a pattern of lower highs on the 8-hour chart as selling pressure built up.

Still, signs of a short-term rebound have been detected. Between March 27 and April 2, price made a lower low but the relative strength index (RSI) formed a higher low. This is a typical bullish divergence and is interpreted as a signal that selling momentum is weakening. Even if a rebound has begun, it is still uncertain whether the move will gain enough strength to lead to a channel breakout.

A hurdle is the dense cost-basis zone stacked just above. Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heat map shows about 622 million XRP clustered in the $1.34 to $1.35 range. If holders judge a rebound as an opportunity to sell in this zone, the upward move could be halted early.

A stronger resistance zone is cited at $1.45 to $1.47. About 1.22 billion XRP is distributed in this range, which also closely overlaps with the upper boundary of the falling channel. The analysis says that for a rebound to lead to a channel breakout, XRP must clear both supply zones without meaningful selling.

The weaker co-movement with bitcoin is also cited as a variable. On a 7-day correlation basis, XRP’s correlation with bitcoin was 0.75, lower than ethereum’s 0.94 over the same period. This independence can work both ways. When bitcoin is weak, XRP may be pulled down less and have room to continue rebounding, but it also means XRP may not follow with the same strength even if bitcoin recovers. Another interpretation says bitcoin strength may be a tailwind, but without internal conviction it could be difficult to push XRP beyond its own resistance line.

A technical pivot point was presented at $1.36. XRP is currently staying just below $1.36, the 0 Fibonacci level, and this area also aligns with the $1.34 to $1.35 supply zone. If there is a clean close on an 8-hour basis above $1.36, it could be taken as a sign that the supply zone has shifted from resistance to support. If it later reclaims $1.46 on an 8-hour basis, it could open a path toward $1.60, the March 17 high, the report said.

On the downside, $1.29 was cited as short-term support. If the 0.236 Fibonacci level at this price breaks, the rebound scenario based on the bullish divergence could also be damaged. The next levels presented were $1.21 (0.5) and $1.17 (0.618). In particular, a drop below $1.17 is interpreted as a signal confirming that the rising channel has completely collapsed.