A first-quarter earnings surprise by the two major memory chipmakers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is increasingly viewed as a foregone conclusion. But factors that could shake industry conditions are piling up at the same pace. While a steep rise in memory prices lifts their first-quarter results, other variables are emerging at the same time that raise concerns about the durability of the semiconductor cycle.

Mirae Asset Securities estimated Samsung Electronics' first-quarter operating profit at 41.3 trillion won, up 105.9 percent from the previous quarter. Hana Securities estimated SK Hynix at 36.9 trillion won, up 92 percent. The estimates reflect a 50 to 80 percent quarter-on-quarter jump in average selling prices for DRAM and NAND, alongside a rise in the won-dollar exchange rate.

Still, the sharp rise in memory prices is also increasing the possibility of weak results at set makers of finished products. As higher memory prices directly raise costs for set makers, demand could slow. Daishin Securities analysed that selling prices for major IT devices such as smartphones and PCs are expected to rise, and that this could later lead to weaker sales and increased pressure on parts suppliers to cut prices.

Kiwoom Securities forecast that operating profit at Samsung Electronics' DX division will fall 56 percent from a year earlier due to a surge in memory costs. While the division that supplies memory posts record results, the division that uses it as a component faces worsening profitability.

Such demand pressure is also intensifying on the technology front. Kiwoom Securities analysed that TurboQuant announced by Google and Nvidia's KVTC are both KV-cache compression technologies, which could act as negative factors for demand forecasts for server DRAM and eSSD in 2027 to 2029.

Some argue that demand for HBM could instead benefit because additional HBM computation is needed during decompression after onloading. That suggests the rise of memory-saving technologies could deepen demand polarisation between general-purpose DRAM and HBM.

Geopolitical risks have also been added. If the U.S.-Iran war becomes protracted, AI investment and the memory cycle could also slow, making downward revisions to valuation multiples and target prices inevitable, IM Securities said. Mirae Asset Securities pointed out that SK Hynix shares have plunged 26.6 percent from their peak as concerns about demand damage from TurboQuant after the war and possible delays to next-generation GPU models overlap. That leaves share prices turning down first even as earnings forecasts are being revised up.

Memory prices themselves have held up so far. According to Mirae Asset Securities, declines from the peak in spot DRAM prices are limited to 7 percent for DDR4 and 5 percent for DDR5, and March contract prices for DDR5 were set at $31, 3.3 percent higher than expected.

IM Securities said a sharp shift to a downtrend in spot prices appears unlikely, but warned that if declines widen and a downtrend persists it could be interpreted as a signal that the cost burden from memory is starting to have a full-fledged negative impact across the cycle. It expects the persistence of big tech capital expenditure growth after the second quarter and spot price trends to be key indicators for judging industry conditions.