An analysis says bitcoin is showing a pattern of pricing in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy rather than lagging it. On April 5, blockchain media outlet CoinDesk cited a Binance Research report that pointed to spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds as a backdrop to the change.

The report said the relationship between bitcoin and an indicator of a monetary easing phase has recently flipped more clearly. Binance said the correlation between its “global breadth of easing index,” which tracks the stance of 41 central banks, and the bitcoin price has shifted to a “strong negative correlation” since 2024. It said the change emerged after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.

Before the ETF launch, a mild positive relationship was observed, with bitcoin following the global easing cycle by several months. Now the opposite effect has become much stronger than before. The report said this is closer to a signal that the old link has reversed.

Binance said a key factor behind the shift is that “who moves the price” has changed. In the past, retail investors accounted for a large share, and bitcoin tended to react immediately to macroeconomic news and interest-rate signals. With ETFs opening a path, institutional influence has grown, and they have begun to view bitcoin by building positions months ahead of policy changes, it said.

Binance Research said, “As a result, bitcoin may have evolved from a macro ‘lagging receiver’ to a ‘leading price-setter’.” It added, “The peak of easing may already be old news for bitcoin, and crypto-native drivers such as policy progress and institutional fund flows could become more important than the direction of easing itself.”

The report came as stagflation concerns re-emerge amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions around war in the Middle East. Interest-rate expectations are also swinging from “cuts” to the “possibility of hikes,” but Binance assessed that such rate reactions could be overinterpreted. It said that in the past, there were cases where central banks ultimately pivoted toward supporting growth after a surge in inflation, and that if a similar pattern is repeated, bitcoin could price in a so-called “policy pivot” earlier than market expectations.