The U.S. Senate has set late April for committee review of the Clarity Act, a crypto market structure bill.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on March 31 that the Senate had set a goal of clearing the committee by May. But as industry pushback grows over key contentious provisions, last-minute talks to revise the bill before deliberations have emerged as a variable. TD Cowen put the odds of the bill passing this year at about one-third and said pessimism about progress is growing.

The bill’s path has not been smooth. Coinbase withdrew its support even on the eve of a committee review that had been scheduled for Jan. 15, and the vote was later delayed. The industry is particularly taking issue with a compromise proposal led by Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Democratic Senator Angela Alsobrooks that was made public on March 24.

The bill’s biggest point of contention is a provision that would ban paying passive interest returns on stablecoin balances held. It is designed to allow rewards tied to activities such as trading and payments. Coinbase says the wording could in effect block even activity-based reward structures. Jarrett Seiberg, managing director of TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, also said the compromise proposal is insufficient to advance the bill.

On March 26, Coinbase told the Senate it could not support the revised proposal, citing major concerns. This is the second time Coinbase has formalised its opposition, and it was reported to be coordinating an industry-level alternative with several large crypto firms to seek changes to the text. The provision could directly affect Coinbase’s stablecoin-related revenue, which is $1.35 billion a year, or about 20 percent of its annual revenue.

Banks are raising pressure in the opposite direction from the crypto industry. Jamie Dimon (제이미 다이먼), CEO of JPMorgan, and Brian Armstrong (브라이언 암스트롱), CEO of Coinbase, are at odds over the stablecoin economy. The crypto industry argues that banks have earned about 4 percent on reserves deposited at the U.S. Federal Reserve while applying virtually zero interest rates to depositors, and says a ban on rewards is simply a restraint on competition.

Politicians are also seeking a compromise. Senator Cynthia Lummis (신시아 루미스) said on March 29, "We are working to protect stablecoin reward plans while preventing deposit outflows from community banks," and said coordination was under way to build bipartisan agreement.

The key question now is whether a Coinbase-led alternative will be reflected in the text before the late April committee review. Senator Moreno was reported to have warned that if it is not passed by May, it is unlikely that digital asset legislation will be seriously taken up again before 2027. If the bill, which passed the House last July by 294 to 134, stalls in the Senate, regulatory overhaul could also drift for the long term, making the upcoming review effectively a watershed.