XRP rose as high as $1.60 on March 17 but failed to hold the level and slipped back to the $1.30 range, extending a weak trend. On March 31, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market data show XRP forming a five-wave structure that could head toward a “cycle low”. XRP is down 17.5 percent from its recent high of $1.60 and has fallen 28.49 percent since the start of the year.
Market analyst Casi saw XRP’s movement as a sustained downtrend. Casi said the decline may feel slow and frustrating, but the direction itself has not changed. Earlier rebound attempts also failed to change the overall trend, and the market is tilted bearish as buying failed to build clear momentum, the analyst said.
Casi cited the repeated weakness of rebounds as the key problem. The analyst said rebounds were repeatedly blocked at the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement zone. XRP hit $1.60 on March 17 and fell to $1.49 later the same day. It then tried to rise again but met resistance around $1.53, near Fibonacci 0.382. It also rebounded to $1.5410 on March 17 and to $1.5418 on March 18, but both attempts failed and led to further declines.
The analyst also warned that selling pressure could rise again in the short term. Casi said signs have emerged that selling is strengthening again and that the “slow decline” could speed up. The analyst said XRP is trying to hold around $1.31, but that level overlaps with a future resistance zone, the wave 4 peak. If it falls below $1.31, the decline could become faster and stronger, the analyst said.
An Elliott wave five-wave scenario was presented as the downside path. XRP has been forming a five-stage wave after falling from a $1.60 peak on March 17. In wave 1, it dropped to $1.36 on March 23. In wave 2, it staged a short rebound to $1.46 on the same day but it did not last long.
It has now entered wave 3, which typically can be the strongest in a downtrend, and could fall to around $1.07, which aligns with a Fibonacci 1.618 extension level, according to the view. The wave 4 rebound zone was suggested at $1.22 (Fibonacci 0.328) to $1.31 (Fibonacci 0.618). In the final wave 5, $0.8621 (Fibonacci 0.854) was cited as a candidate low, and Casi mentioned several times that this level is likely to be the bottom of the current downtrend.
There was also an explanation that the five-wave structure is part of a larger corrective wave that has been under way since the market decline in late 2025, corrective wave 2. The overall outlook has not changed, and XRP is heading for a final drop before forming a “clear bottom”, the analysis said.
Market attention is now focused on whether XRP can complete the expected five-wave correction and confirm an actual bottom. In the short term, the key variable is whether buying flows in around the $1.31 level and the suggested lower support zones. Expectations for a full trend reversal are seen gaining support only after this process is completed.
XRP Price Action Still Weak! Move Down Getting Closer!! I’m still expecting us to come down and reach lower supports... It’s just taking its time getting there, SO frustrating!! What’s standing out right now is how weak every bounce has been. All of these relief moves are… pic.twitter.com/ks0RwB3aIK