An Iran-driven oil shock hit global financial markets, with large hedge funds reporting losses of several billion dollars. Bitcoin, however, rose over the same period, moving differently from traditional assets.

On March 26, blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported that energy-market volatility triggered by the Iran crisis upended the positions of major macro funds. Caston Associates' $9 billion macro fund recorded losses of more than $1.3 billion in March alone. It had bet on falling UK government bond yields and rising gold and copper prices, but losses widened as markets moved against expectations.

Other large funds were also hit. Taula Capital, led by Daigo Mejia, lost 4.7 percent, the Brevan Howard master fund lost 2.4 percent, and the PIMCO Commodity Alpha fund lost 17 percent. Multi-strategy platform Millennium Management lost $1.5 billion in just one week, while Citadel, Balyasny Asset Management and Point72 also posted weak performance.

Bridgewater Associates' Pure Alpha fund limited losses to less than 1 percent, outperforming in relative terms. Portfolio diversification and a strategy of reducing risk exposure are seen as having provided a defensive buffer during the volatile period.

While traditional financial markets were unsettled, bitcoin climbed. It rose about 7 percent from late February to mid-March, beating major assets including the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, gold and silver. It also regained the $70,000 level when Brent crude tumbled on March 24 after reports of a possible ceasefire, showing relative resilience.

Fund flows also supported the move. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $700 million over the same period, led by buying in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust.

Internal market indicators, however, still sent mixed signals. Bitcoin funding rates stayed negative from early March, and the Fear and Greed Index remained in the "extreme fear" zone. Volatility also increased after the U.S. Federal Reserve held its policy rate while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7 percent, prompting $129 million to leave ETFs in a single day.