Bitcoin has shown strength during the U.S.-Iran war, but investors are growing more anxious as U.S. Treasury yields surge.

On March 24 local time, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.42 percent, its highest in 9 months. It said the 30-year and 2-year yields were also rising. The report attributed the move to war-driven oil price gains stoking inflation and reducing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

President Donald Trump (도널드 트럼프)'s 5-day ceasefire measure briefly steadied the market, but continued fighting with Iran raises the likelihood that Treasury yields will climb further over the longer term.

Market experts have raised the possibility that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield could rise as high as 6.4 percent. That could hurt risk assets such as bitcoin and stock markets. Similar patterns were observed during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 1990 Gulf War and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.

In the short term, Treasury yields rose and stock markets fell. Over the longer term, financial markets faced sustained pressure as stagflation emerged. The current U.S.-Iran war also appears to be in its early stages, and if the conflict drags on, the bitcoin market is likely to face additional downward pressure.

Technical analysis suggests bitcoin is currently in a bearish pattern and is likely to fall below $50,000 in 2026. Prediction markets also see a 70 percent chance bitcoin drops below $55,000 in 2026 and a 46 percent chance it falls below $45,000.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes (아서 헤이즈) said that if the U.S.-Iran war becomes prolonged, the likelihood of the Fed easing monetary policy would increase, which could have a positive impact on bitcoin.