[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] David Schwartz (데이비드 슈워츠), Ripple’s honorary chief technology officer (CTO), took a cautious stance on forecasts of XRP reaching $100.

On March 20, blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that as expectations spread in the crypto community that XRP could reach $100 over the long term, Schwartz rebutted that scenario based on market realities.

In a Q&A with investors, he said, "If people truly believed there was a possibility that XRP could reach $100 within 2 years, the price would have already risen sharply on massive buying." He added, "The market is not reflecting such expectations right now," he said.

After rising in November 2024, XRP has moved in a range of about $1.2 to $3.5 to date, maintaining a boxed-in pattern. Its current price is about $1.4, and it would need to rise by nearly 6,800 percent to reach $100.

Even so, some community figures have continued to put forward the $100 target. Jake Claver, chief executive officer (CEO) of Digital Ascension Group, predicted that XRP would reach that price by the end of 2025, but the market instead showed a downward trend, diverging from expectations.

Schwartz explained that asset prices have a rational structure that reflects market expectations over the long term. The more investors believe an asset is likely to rise sharply in the short term, the more early buying flows in and the price should already be higher, he argued.

Schwartz cited bitcoin (BTC) as an example. "If investors believe there is a high probability bitcoin will reach $500,000 within 2 years, massive funds would have already flowed in and the price would be at a much higher level," he said. "But that is not happening," he said.

Some XRP investors argue that today’s skepticism resembles bitcoin’s early days. Schwartz also mentioned that he entered the market when bitcoin was around $2 and at the time assessed the possibility of it reaching $100 as low.

But he drew a line, saying such cases do not immediately justify an extreme rise in XRP. Markets move depending on various variables and the supply-and-demand structure, meaning a simple comparison can be risky.

Schwartz argues that the price investors truly believe in is already reflected in the market. In that reading, the fact that XRP has not surged so far means many market participants do not see a high likelihood of it reaching $100 in the short term.

In the market, the remarks are being assessed as both a warning against overheated expectations and a presentation of a realistic view of how crypto prices are formed.

Call me crazy, but I still think crypto prices are mostly rational over the long term. That means nobody can reasonably expect any cryptocurrency to, say, have a 70% chance of doubling in the next year because if they did, the price would have already risen based on that…