[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] As XRP is increasingly likely to record its first streak of five straight monthly declines in 10 years, a past case in which it surged 60,000 percent after a similar pattern is drawing renewed attention.

According to blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic on Feb. 19, XRP fell 8.15 percent in August 2025 and then rebounded 2.55 percent in September, but the decline resumed from October. It has posted four straight monthly declines since October 2025, with cumulative losses during the period estimated at about 42 percent. In February 2026, XRP is also posting a monthly decline in the 13 percent range. If it closes this month with a negative candle, it will mark five straight monthly declines.

It is also being cited that cases of five straight monthly declines are rare. For example, during the FTX incident in 2022, XRP fell for three straight months from April to June, and around the time of the FTX collapse in the same year (October to December) it also stayed at three straight months of declines, the report said. Some also assess that XRP posting four straight negative monthly candles is in practice a rare pattern since 2020.

The last time a five-month losing streak appeared was in late 2016 to early 2017. At the time, XRP fell for five straight months from October 2016 to February 2017, dropping about 37 percent from $0.00885 to $0.00557. It then began rebounding from March 2017 and rose to $0.3988 in May. After going through about six months of consolidation, the rally resumed and hit a high of $3.31 in January 2018. The rise from the March 2017 low (around $0.0055) to the January 2018 peak came to 60,081 percent.

Some calculate that if a 60,000 percent rise is repeated from the current price of $1.42, it would theoretically come to around $841. Others point out that it is unclear whether a similar surge will be repeated because market conditions are very different from the past. Ultimately, the key points to watch are when the run of negative candles breaks, whether the monthly trend can form a reversal signal, and whether a rebound after the decline can develop into a structural recovery rather than a temporary bounce.

Some also note that the past surge precedent does not immediately guarantee future price moves. They assess that the possibility of the same kind of surge being repeated is limited because, unlike then, the current market has many more variables, including market capitalisation scale, the composition of participants and the regulatory environment. A simple application of a 60,000 percent rise from $1.42 yields around $841, but caution is needed because it is only an assumption.

Ultimately, the key points to watch are whether the February monthly candle closes negative to confirm five straight months of declines, and whether a rebound after the downtrend ends will remain a short-term bounce or lead to a trend reversal. The market cites as key variables the shift in supply and demand in major support and resistance zones, a recovery in trading volume and a reversal in risk appetite sentiment in gauging the next direction.

The last time #XRP printed 5 red monthly candles was from October 2016 to February 2017. It’s February 2026 and XRP is repeating history. Just look what happened in March, April and May of 2017. Time is ticking. pic.twitter.com/yy3w4IHX7W