[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] As analysis emerges that XRP is showing a decline pattern similar to 2017 and 2018, the possibility of a future sharp rise is also being discussed.

On Feb. 18 (local time), blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that XRP has recently shown weakness for five straight months. On Feb. 6 it fell as far as $1.11, marking its lowest level in 15 months. That is down 65 percent from its January 2025 peak of $3.4.

As the scale of this correction grows, a view in the market that a similar 흐름 to 2017-2018 may be playing out is again gaining attention. Interest is focusing on whether the current zone is a bottom-forming stage, given that a strong rise followed a long correction after a sharp surge at the time.

Cryptocurrency market analyst CryptoBull said XRP is following a wave structure and is currently in a second downside phase. After Donald Trump was elected U.S. president, XRP completed a first upward phase as it rose from $0.5 in November 2024 to $3.4 in January 2025, and then shifted into a correction phase, the analyst said. CryptoBull viewed the 68 percent correction as having been completed as XRP fell to $1.11 on Feb. 6.

Similar zones are also observed in past data, which is being cited as evidence. XRP rose from $0.005 in 2017 to $0.3989 and then went through about six months of correction, before surging 1,300 percent to reach $3.31 in January 2018. CryptoBull raised the possibility that XRP could rise to $18 if this decline ends.

However, interpretations of wave structures can vary by perspective, and it is difficult to conclude that past price patterns will repeat in the same way. In particular, even if a rebound appears after a steep decline, it can be a burden that volatility may increase until it is confirmed whether it is a trend reversal or a short-term pullback.

Ultimately, the key hinges on whether the $1.11 zone becomes a meaningful low. If that low continues to hold and a recovery trend appears in a stable way, a bullish scenario could gain strength. If the zone is shaken again, it is difficult to rule out the possibility of an additional correction. As the similarity to past patterns is a reference indicator, an assessment has emerged that future price moves remain uncertain.

The market views it as likely that XRP will remain in a "post-plunge re-evaluation zone" for the time being. For a scenario in which a sharp rise follows a long correction, as in 2017-2018, to materialise, it must not end with a short-term rebound. It must be followed by a 흐름 in which the price stabilises and builds a base for a period and then rises in a trend. That is, rather than chasing an immediate target price, a key variable that will determine XRP's character is whether this decline is "a wrap-up of one cycle" or a turning point for moving into the next upward phase.

In 2017 #XRP fell 65% after wave 1 marking the end of wave 2. In 2026 XRP fell 68% after wave 1 marking the end of wave 2. In 2017 XRP then surged 1,200% for wave 3. That means that we will see $13 and higher by the end of March.