An analysis said Bitcoin would need to fall to $55,000 for the market to recover. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju (주기영) said in an interview with blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto on Feb. 18 that the Bitcoin market has clearly entered a bear market and may require months of adjustment.

He said tens of billions of dollars had flowed in, but total market capitalisation was flat or falling. That means strong selling pressure is at work, he added. He also stressed that past severe correction phases required at least three months of sideways movement and that short-term rebounds do not mean the start of a new bull market.

Ki outlined two recovery scenarios for Bitcoin. The first is a rebound after the price falls to around $55,000. He said that level reflects the average purchase price of Bitcoin holders based on on-chain data and that prices have resumed an uptrend after touching it in the past. The second is a prolonged sideways move between $60,000 and $70,000, which would require sufficient adjustment and market stabilisation.

But for now, conditions for a sustained rise are not in place, with ETF inflows stalled and over-the-counter market demand also falling.

In particular, recent selling pressure appears to have come from institutional investors liquidating positions. As Bitcoin volatility has declined, institutions that used beta-delta neutral strategies moved to other assets such as the Nasdaq and gold.

CME data show institutions sharply reduced short positions, which does not signal strength but rather capital outflows. A pattern has also been observed in which large amounts of Bitcoin are sold at market prices in a short period, which is highly likely to be forced liquidations or strategic selling to adjust derivatives positions.

The outlook for the altcoin market is even bleaker. Trading volume held up throughout 2024, but actual new capital inflows were concentrated only in some tokens with the potential for ETF listings. Total altcoin market capitalisation failed to surpass its past peak, showing that the market is not expanding and only existing funds are circulating.

Ki said the era when the altcoin market rose on a single narrative is over and that this is a time when structural innovation such as an AI agent economy is needed. In the short term, altcoins have limited upside potential, and it will likely take a long time for investor sentiment to recover.