The ETF market is expanding into U.S. election prediction investing. Bitwise and GraniteShares filed documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch ETFs based on election outcomes, Cointelegraph reported on Feb. 18.
Bitwise will launch ETFs under a brand called PredictionShares. The lineup includes products that predict the outcomes of the 2028 U.S. presidential election and the 2026 House and Senate elections.
Each fund would provide returns to investors if a specific party wins. If the prediction is wrong, investors could lose their entire investment.
The ETFs would invest more than 80 percent of their assets in binary event contracts traded on exchanges regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Depending on the outcome, the per-share value would be set at $0 or $1.
GraniteShares also filed on the same day for a similarly structured ETF, and the ETF market is becoming increasingly diverse, Cointelegraph reported. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart forecast that "these prediction market-style ETFs will continue to increase."
Chi-gyu Hwang
delight@d-today.co.kr