[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Ethereum (ETH) fell to $1,740 in early February and then rebounded about 23 percent, but doubts are growing in the market about the sustainability of the rebound. Chart patterns, on-chain indicators and volume analysis are all seen as still insufficient to confirm a strong buy signal.

BeInCrypto reported on Feb. 9 (local time) that Ethereum completed a key bearish pattern on the daily chart on Feb. 5 and fell to around the projected target near $1,800, before forming a low at $1,740 the next day. It has since rebounded, but momentum and volume support were limited relative to the price rise.

The relative strength index (RSI) rose, but the price did not follow sufficiently, producing a hidden bearish divergence. That suggests short-term momentum is improving, but selling pressure remains in the market.

On the 12-hour chart, a typical bearish continuation pattern known as a 'bear flag' is forming. A rebound has continued within an ascending channel after the sharp drop, but on-balance volume (OBV) has not kept pace with the price rise and is maintaining a bearish trend. The analysis says the likelihood of additional declines increases if falling volume persists.

On-chain data also show the rebound is being led by short-term traders rather than long-term investors. Short-term holders' net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) fell to -0.72 at the $1,740 low and then quickly recovered to around -0.47, but this is assessed as similar to past 'fake bottom' sections. In April 2025, when a strong bottom was formed, NUPL fell further to around -0.80 before the rebound began. Ethereum was then about $1,470.

Long-term holders' moves remain negative. Net position changes among investors who have held Ethereum for at least 155 days have shown increasing selling since early February, with net selling rising by about more than 80 percent in just 4 days. That means long-term investors lack conviction at current price levels.

Technically, the analysis says Ethereum needs to regain the $2,150 resistance line to stabilise, and above $2,780 to fully invalidate the bearish structure. If daily closes continue below $1,990, the rebound could weaken. If the Fibonacci support at $1,750 breaks, it could fall to $1,500 and, in the worst case, to $1,000 if it breaks down from the bear flag pattern.

The market is now showing three risk signals at the same time: a lack of volume, continued selling by long-term holders and a rebound led by short-term traders. The prevailing assessment is that unless this structure changes, Ethereum's short-term rebound has not fully removed the risk of further declines.