Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a deep bear market and could see further declines, a forecast said.

Coindesk reported on March 7 that CK Zheng (CK 정), founder of crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital, said in a recent email that bitcoin was clearly in a deep bear market and could fall as much as 30 percent by 2026 due to geopolitical tensions and the market cycle.

Bitcoin has been falling since hitting a record high of about $126,000 in October last year and is now trading at about $68,000.

Zheng cited the four-year cycle, a key market pattern for bitcoin, as a major factor. The cycle refers to a pattern in which prices repeatedly rise and fall around bitcoin halvings, when mining rewards are cut in half.

The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, and block rewards have now been reduced to 3.125 BTC. Historically, bitcoin prices have tended to peak about 16 to 18 months after a halving, followed by about a year of a bear market.

Zheng said bitcoin peaking in October 2025 shows the cycle is working again.

He cited investor psychology as a reason the cycle is hard to break. Zheng said retail investors tend to buy at overheated prices in bull markets and sell in fear in bear markets, adding that this behaviour over the past 10 years has reinforced the crypto market’s four-year cycle. He also said that because of these traits, bitcoin is still traded more like a speculative asset than a safe-haven asset such as gold.

Institutional participation is also still limited, he said. Zheng said crypto ETFs and companies holding digital assets account for only about 10 percent of the overall market.

He also warned that additional downward pressure could emerge if some companies sell their bitcoin holdings to repay debt. He said such selling pressure could create a vicious cycle in which falling prices trigger further selling, and that the bear market could last longer until the next upward cycle begins.