Market-making firm Wintermute released its latest analysis of the bitcoin market.

CoinPost reported on Tuesday that Wintermute said bitcoin’s fall below $80,000 was a “delayed risk-off” move in which multiple macro factors overlapped with leverage liquidations, rather than being driven by a single negative catalyst. Bitcoin fell below $80,000 for the first time since the tariff shock in April 2025 from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Wintermute cited 3 factors it said triggered bitcoin’s decline: a drop in the Magnificent Seven (Mag7), the appointment of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next chair, and fund outflows from the precious-metals market.

Wintermute also assessed that “the current crypto market is clearly in a bear market,” citing weak altcoin performance, limited upside potential in a narrow rally and worsening sentiment on X, formerly known as Twitter. It also said that, compared with other asset classes, the persistence of both gains and losses is a typical bear-market pattern.

It stressed that this bear market is not due to structural failures such as FTX, Terra/Luna and Three Arrows Capital in 2022. Instead, it analysed the move as “organic deleveraging” driven by a combination of position adjustments, a shift in the investment narrative, and reduced risk appetite amid macroeconomic and trend changes. It said this cycle could end faster than previous bear markets if there are no forced bankruptcies or chain collapses.

Wintermute said it expects market interest to recover quickly in the second half of 2026 if macroeconomic uncertainty eases and the Fed’s policy direction becomes clearer. It added that despite excessive positions being cleared out through liquidations, investor confidence remains low and the market is in a “price discovery” phase after breaking through a 2-month range.

Wintermute said it is still too early to discuss a return to a full-fledged uptrend, but it expects a much clearer breakout than in past post-bear-market periods once an uptrend emerges.