A forecast has emerged that the real-world asset (RWA) market could grow to $200 trillion over the long term. The analysis also said XRP could benefit significantly if that scenario materialises.

On March 3, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan (매트 호건) said on the Milk Road Podcast that the tokenisation market, currently about $26 billion, could expand to $200 trillion over the long term.

He stressed that the current scale of tokenisation is only a tiny fraction compared with traditional financial markets. Global equities are worth about $110 trillion, bonds $140 trillion, real estate $250 trillion and the ETF market $30 trillion, he said, adding that there is ample room for growth if tokenisation takes off. Hougan argued that even if tokenisation grew 10,000-fold, it could still be only a small part of the overall financial market.

He also pointed to BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink’s comment that "eventually all assets will be tokenised" and added that the traditional finance sector is already moving, with major Wall Street institutions hiring related staff.

The RWA market is currently worth about $26 billion. Of that, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) accounts for about $455 million, giving it a share of about 1.75 percent. If the overall market expands to $200 trillion and XRPL maintains the same share, about $3.5 trillion of assets would be put on the network. XRPL has a structure designed with institutional use in mind and has recently strengthened finance-friendly features such as a permissioned DEX and permissioned domains.

A utility-based analysis by Google's AI model Gemini was also presented on how those assumptions could affect the XRP price. With XRP currently at about $1.35 and $455 million of RWA on XRPL, reaching $3.5 trillion would require growth of about 7,692 times. Gemini said that if network efficiency improves, the price may not rise at the same pace as the increase in assets.

In a conservative scenario, XRP could reach about $118. In a more optimistic case, the analysis said XRP would need greater liquidity if it is actively traded as a bridge asset and collateral and used for cross-border payments and loan collateral. It said healthy markets generally maintain liquidity at about 10 to 15 percent of assets, implying $350 billion to $525 billion of liquidity would be needed to support $3.5 trillion of assets. Based on that, a hypothetical scenario put XRP in a range of $245 to $315.

Still, a $200 trillion tokenisation market is closer to a long-term outlook, and actual developments could vary greatly depending on many factors such as the regulatory environment, the pace of institutional adoption and competitive dynamics. Even so, as traditional finance interest expands, expectations for the role of XRP and XRPL are likely to continue for now if tokenisation becomes the next-generation financial infrastructure.