A forecast has emerged that Bitcoin will enter a new market cycle starting in 2026.

According to blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto on March 3, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck (얀 반 에크) said in a CNBC interview that Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle and that 2026 will be the last year of the downturn.

He said Bitcoin is driven by two factors: a supply cap of 21 million coins and the halving. He said there is an investment cycle in which Bitcoin rises for 3 consecutive years and then falls sharply in the fourth year, and that 2026 is that fourth year. The analysis is that Bitcoin is currently in a bear market and is hitting a bottom.

According to Kaiko Research, Bitcoin’s price is showing a pattern similar to past cycles. In particular, the recent move correcting to $60,000 to $70,000 from $126,000 matches previous bear markets, and also aligns with a historical pattern in which a peak forms 12 to 18 months after a halving. But it takes 6 to 12 months for a market bottom to form, and there is a strong possibility of repeated failed rebounds during that process.

Matt Hougan (맷 호건), chief investment officer at Bitwise, also said the four-year cycle increased selling pressure among holders and led to weaker prices. Some experts, meanwhile, are raising a counterargument that Bitcoin is still more affected by global liquidity and institutional capital flows. CryptoQuant said if this cycle is similar to the past, a market bottom will form between June and December 2026. It said September to November is the most likely window.

Bitcoin is currently showing a recovery despite geopolitical tensions and is trading at $68,217, up 3.4 percent. Investor attention is focused on whether the market will repeat past patterns or enter a new trend.