Can XRP overtake Ethereum, the long-time No. 2 cryptocurrency? Some in the industry raised the possibility last year of a “flippening,” where XRP would surpass Ethereum in 2025, but the barriers remain high.

On Jan. 17, blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic highlighted the gap between optimism on XRP and market reality, based on data analysis.

According to the report, XRP surged more than 700 percent from late 2024 to mid-2025 in a rapid chase, but its peak market value stayed at $210 billion. Ethereum, by contrast, reached $600 billion over the same period, showing an overwhelming gap.

The current situation is also challenging. XRP, at $2.10, has a market value of about $127 billion, while Ethereum, at $3,100, stands at $375 billion. The gap between the two cryptocurrencies alone is $250 billion. Arithmetically, XRP would need to rise more than threefold to $6.66 for a market value around $400 billion to compare with Ethereum, the calculation shows.

Longer-term forecasts are positive. Standard Chartered expects XRP to reach $10 in 2027, and many experts also see it breaking $6 around 2027 to 2028.

The issue is “relative speed.” It is unlikely Ethereum will stay flat while XRP triples. Given the crypto market’s tendency for large assets to rise together, one analysis says Ethereum is likely to climb when XRP surges, maintaining the gap or even widening it.

The 2030 outlook is more complex. Analysts at crypto prediction platform Changelly forecast Ethereum will reach $14,673, with a market value of $1.76 trillion. XRP is seen at $16.24, with a market value of $976 billion, still short of Ethereum. Some XRP bulls argue it will surpass $100, with a market value of $6 trillion, by 2030, but it is viewed as unlikely. Ethereum bulls, meanwhile, have raised the possibility of a rise to $62,000 and believe XRP would struggle to catch up.

Variables that could reshape the market still exist. Whether Ripple pursues an initial public offering, approval of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund, and changes in the U.S. regulatory environment could act as powerful catalysts for XRP’s price. Ethereum also faces tasks such as expanding its layer 2 ecosystem and resolving gas fee issues, and the pace of executing its technical roadmap is expected to affect the gap between the two cryptocurrencies.

In conclusion, combining data and market trends suggests it will not be easy for XRP to break Ethereum’s dominance in the near future. For XRP to achieve a flippening, Ethereum’s growth would need to stagnate or XRP would need to deliver unprecedented large-scale global adoption. The time has come to focus less on vague expectations of a ranking reversal and more on the practical utility each project can prove within the financial system.