Six traders who predicted on prediction-market platform Polymarket that the United States would strike Iran by the end of February made $1 million, raising an insider-trading controversy, blockchain outlet Cointelegraph reported on Thursday local time.

According to analytics firm Bubblemaps SA, they created new wallets in February and focused most of their activity on contracts predicting the timing of a U.S.-Iran strike. Some traders maximised profits by buying contracts for $0.10 until a few hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.

An on-chain probe found their pattern resembles activity previously suspected of insider trading in prediction markets. Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman said, "If there is war or conflict, information can spread more widely before it becomes public." He added, "Polymarket allows trading with just a wallet, offering high anonymity, which makes it more likely that participants with information act early."

More than $529 million has recently been put into Polymarket contracts related to a U.S.-Iran strike. Contracts targeting Feb. 28 alone saw $90 million traded, emerging as the most popular date. Despite the insider-trading suspicions, some accounts made more than $170,000 through additional bets after losing money on their initial predictions. That suggests it could simply be speculation.

Polymarket has also recently been linked to an insider-trading controversy involving DeFi platform Axiom. After investigator ZachXBT (잭XBT) alleged that Axiom employees and related parties have traded on inside information since early 2025, some wallets made more than $1.2 million. Last month, an account correctly predicted the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and made $400,000, raising another insider-trading suspicion.

U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing the "Financial Prediction Markets Public Interest Act of 2026" to restrict insider trading in prediction markets. The bill would ban public officials with non-public information from betting on policy or political outcomes. Polymarket is classified as an unlicensed gambling platform in several countries and is blocked or banned in the Netherlands, Hungary, Belgium, France, Italy, Romania, Poland, Singapore and Portugal.