Chinese technology stocks tumbled, wiping out about $480 billion in market value, while bitcoin rose about 27 percent over the same period.
On Oct. 29, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that the STAR50 index, made up of 50 major stocks on Shanghai's STAR Market, fell 39.8 percent from July 9 to Oct. 26. Bitcoin rose 26.6 percent over the same period.
But it is difficult to say bitcoin is completely decoupled from the stock market simply because their cumulative returns diverged. Reuters reported that the correlation of daily returns between bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100, calculated based on 30 U.S. trading days through Oct. 26, was about 0.63, up from 0.36 as of July 9. While their overall direction differed over the full period, they tended to move together more strongly on a daily basis.
The variables cited for scrutiny were leverage and cross-market selling pressure. That means bitcoin's current strength may not be insulated from external shocks if margin pressure increases or selling occurs to cover losses in other markets. The focus for markets is not the size of the rise itself, but the conditions under which the move has been sustained.
The key question is whether selling in Chinese tech stocks leads to funding pressure and forced selling in other markets. If margin calls increase due to falling share prices or withdrawals expand, investors may sell other assets, including bitcoin, to raise cash.
Flows into and out of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds were mixed. There was a net outflow of $636 million on Oct. 22, but a net inflow of $110 million on Oct. 26.
As a result, bitcoin's relative strength stood out in the short term, but in a future phase of market volatility it may be necessary to watch for the possibility that shocks in external asset markets spread back to the crypto market. The comparison highlighted the contrast between a sharp drop in Chinese tech stocks and a rise in bitcoin, but the ultimate test depends on broader market leverage pressure and whether selling becomes a chain reaction.