[DigitalToday reporter Hyunwoo Chu (추현우)] Bitcoin is failing to pick a direction between upper resistance and lower support, with $80,000 as a key pivot. On Oct. 15 (local time), blockchain media outlet CoinPost said Glassnode, in its latest weekly report, assessed that the bitcoin market is caught between strong selling pressure and a thick support line.

On the upside, the purchase prices of investors who bought over the past two years are acting as resistance. The average cost basis for holders of 6 to 12 months is about $88,000, and for 1 to 2 years is about $100,000. Glassnode said that until bitcoin's daily close clearly exceeds $88,000, selling around break-even levels could emerge on each rise.

Support on the downside is relatively firm. Bitcoin is trading above the true market mean of about $78,000, which refers to the average purchase price of active investors, and above the cost basis of short-term holders. The average purchase price of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, about $81,500, was briefly breached intraday on Oct. 8 and 13, but recovered on a closing basis both times.

On Binance's spot order book, the largest buy orders are clustered around $80,000. The $80,000 to $81,500 range is seen as a key price zone supported by both on-chain indicators and order-book supply and demand. If this zone breaks, the correction range could widen to a liquidation cluster just below $80,000 and to the true market mean around $78,000.

In the futures market, liquidations of a similar scale are clustered below $80,000 and around $88,000. If $80,000 breaks, forced liquidation of long positions could deepen the decline. If it rises toward around $88,000, a short squeeze could appear as short positions are bought back. Glassnode added that without spot buying demand, it would be difficult for an uptrend to continue.

Glassnode defined the current move as a shallow bear market that differs from past bear markets. Stop-loss selling by long-term holders has mostly subsided, and realised losses have fallen about 85 percent since peaking on Aug. 12. Unlike the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, bitcoin's daily close has not fallen below the realised price even once this time.

Still, short-term variables remain. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw about $3 billion in net inflows from Sept. 21 to Oct. 6, but shifted to net outflows of about $760 million after Oct. 7. The U.S. consumer price index for September, released on Oct. 14, also exceeded market expectations, keeping caution over additional rate hikes and uncertainty surrounding U.S. midterm elections.