Money has flowed out of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but large whales have increased their pace of accumulation.

CryptoSlate reported on Oct. 14 that spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $744.3 million, but large holders’ combined bitcoin holdings rose to 3.03 million BTC.

CryptoQuant said in a report on Oct. 13 that large holders posted the fastest monthly increase in holdings since February. While ETFs saw outflows, on-chain large holders increased their bitcoin, showing diverging moves.

The two figures need to be viewed separately. The 3.03 million BTC is the combined holdings of large holders, not newly purchased volume, while ETF net outflows refer to net funds that left over a certain period. While it is true that the increase in whales’ holdings contrasts with ETF outflows, it is hard to judge from these figures alone how much buying offset the outflows.

This accumulation was confirmed ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data. Even in a situation where rate expectations and risk-asset appetite could shift depending on the inflation reading, large holders increased their bitcoin. With the data release now over, attention turns to whether the accumulation continues.

A shift in ETF fund flows is also key. If whale accumulation continues while ETF outflows also slow, the supply-demand burden on bitcoin could ease. If the market’s reading of the inflation data leads to risk-asset avoidance, how much large holders’ buying can reduce the burden from outflows will become important.

A key point to watch is whether whales and ETF investors move in the same direction after the inflation data release. Whether the pre-release accumulation by large holders turns into sustained demand and whether funds flow back into the ETF market remain key variables for gauging bitcoin supply and demand.