An analysis showed altcoins rose more than bitcoin after U.S. interest rate increases.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Oct. 13 that Binance Research analyzed market moves after the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting with a focus on real interest rates. It said gains in both stocks and cryptocurrencies were concentrated in some names and sectors.

Since Aug. 31, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen 47 basis points, with 43 basis points attributed to higher real yields. The 10-year real yield climbed to 2.95 percent on Oct. 5, the highest level since November 2008, and is now hovering around 2.87 percent.

In the crypto market, return gaps between major tokens and other altcoins were clear. After the rate increase, bitcoin rose 9.3 percent and ethereum gained 2.7 percent, while the median rise among the other 194 tokens was 21 percent. By sector, layer-2 related tokens were the strongest, up 32 percent, while real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and artificial intelligence (AI) related tokens each rose 29 percent. Meme coins and payment-related tokens were up 5 percent each.

Over the past week, cryptocurrencies were relatively weak. Bitcoin fell 3.3 percent to about $83,000, and ethereum dropped 7.0 percent. The altcoin index also slid 3.6 percent.

A similar pattern appeared in stocks. After a Sept. 16 rate increase, the S&P 500 rose 3.3 percent, but the Russell 2000 index and financial stocks fell. The equal-weighted S&P 500 was largely flat, and the index rise was led by the semiconductor sector, which gained 10.6 percent. On weak bank shares, Binance said valuation adjustments had a larger impact than deteriorating results. It pointed to earnings from major U.S. banks scheduled for Oct. 13-14 as a factor for judging the next direction of share moves.

Fund flows also showed selective buying within risk assets. Stock-related products on Binance saw net inflows of $169 million from Oct. 5 to 9. Technology stocks drew $79 million, financial services $32 million and healthcare $26 million, with the three areas accounting for about 81 percent of total inflows.

Funds were concentrated particularly in semiconductors. The SOXX semiconductor equity ETF fell 5.0 percent over a week, but net inflows into the sector rose to $73 million, about four times the prior week. Binance analyzed the move as closer to "buying the dip" than momentum chasing, citing inflows into leveraged products and individual stocks despite the price drop.

By contrast, inflows into crypto-related stocks slowed in line with bitcoin's price moves. Inflows into Circle fell to $15 million from $36 million the previous week. That showed crypto-related stocks remain sensitive to the direction of spot prices.

Key variables ahead included the U.S. September consumer price index (CPI) and the first set of earnings from major U.S. banks since the rate increase. If those indicators exceed expectations, the chance of another U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike in October could rise. As of the report's release, the probability of an October rate hike was about 20 percent.

If the CPI comes in below expectations, risk asset prices could react more sensitively to the path of the 10-year Treasury yield than to the policy rate itself. With a blackout period limiting comments by senior Federal Reserve officials, the next clue was demand at the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction scheduled for Oct. 21.

For bitcoin, a key variable was whether inflows into spot ETFs continue. Binance Research said whether money keeps flowing into spot ETFs even after CPI-driven rate swings could determine the next direction. It said the crypto market could become more sensitive to real yields, ETF flows and U.S. financial sector earnings releases than to short-term price swings.