Bitcoin is holding the weekly key support level of $82,500, as market attention turns to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) due this week. The two indicators are seen as major variables for gauging the direction of monetary policy ahead of this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Oct. 12 (local time) that bitcoin traded around $83,700 on Bitstamp. The weekly close fell 3.2 percent from the prior week, but it held $82,500 and avoided slipping back into its previous long-term range of $60,000 to $80,000.

U.S. September CPI and PPI are due on Oct. 14 and Oct. 15, respectively. Markets expect the year-on-year rise in September consumer prices to accelerate to 3.7 percent from 3.4 percent in August. Rising fuel prices linked to a military conflict in the Middle East are cited as a backdrop. The month-on-month rise in producer prices is also expected to widen to 0.3 percent in September from 0.2 percent in August.

If inflation comes in below expectations, it could be favorable for cryptocurrencies, stocks and gold, analysts say. Tim Waterer (팀 워터러), chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said lower-than-expected inflation could ease the likelihood of additional tightening and the burden of real interest rates, making it a short-term catalyst for gains.

Market expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate path are also shifting. CME FedWatch showed markets pricing an 18.8 percent chance that the policy rate will rise above the current 3.75 to 4.00 percent range at the Oct. 28 meeting. For the December meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point hike was put at 70.6 percent. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to hold a dialogue with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Oct. 17 at an event in Bangkok, Thailand.

In the bond market, the rise in yields has eased somewhat. U.S. Treasury yields slipped slightly from last week’s 24-year high, with the 10-year and 30-year at 5.24 percent and 5.60 percent, respectively, as of Oct. 12. Stock index futures also started the week firm. S&P 500 futures rose 0.25 percent, trading near record highs.

Uncertainty over energy prices remains. U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned a contract to buy 300,000 tons of Russian diesel and an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine, but the response in oil prices was limited. Confusion then grew after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was unaware of the truce.

Technical analysis has highlighted $82,500 as a key support level. Trader Rekt Capital said bitcoin can be seen as having successfully defended support if it closes the weekly candle above that level. That could open room for re-accumulation in the current range and a rise similar to the rebound after the 2022 bear market, he said.

Trader Axel Kibar said bitcoin is in a zone where it is reaffirming the strength of a key support level. Just as the S&P 500 continued rising after repeatedly testing key price levels, bitcoin could rebound if it withstands repeated support tests, he said.

Bitcoin’s near-term direction this week is expected to depend on whether it holds $82,500 and on U.S. inflation data. If inflation exceeds expectations, concerns over further Fed tightening could grow. If the numbers come in lower than expected, momentum could build for a rebound attempt after holding support.