Put positions in Bitcoin options set to expire this week are concentrated in the $76,000 to $80,000 range.

CryptoSlate reported on Sunday that open interest in Deribit’s Bitcoin options expiring on Oct. 16 stands at 15,502 BTC, worth about $1.29 billion. Puts total 9,128 BTC and calls 6,373 BTC. The put-call ratio is 1.43.

By strike, about $188 million in put positions were stacked at $80,000. Another $162 million was concentrated at $78,000, and $101 million at $76,000. The three levels total about $451 million, accounting for about 35 percent of the expiring contracts. As Bitcoin slid at one point to around $80,000 during last week’s sharp drop, put positions accumulated at that level and below.

Even so, it is difficult to interpret all put open interest as outright bets on a decline. That is because it includes not only hedges against downside risk but also trades that sold puts to collect premiums.

Call positions at key upper price levels were relatively small. About $94 million was stacked at $90,000, $70 million at $87,000 and $55 million at $85,000. The total came to $219 million, less than half of the major lower put positions. To reach $90,000, Bitcoin would need to rise about 8 percent from its then price of $83,450.

The “max pain” level, the price at which option buyers suffer the largest losses at expiry, was calculated at $83,000. For end-of-month expiries, large positions were also formed at upper levels. The notional value of calls at the $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000 strikes for options expiring on Oct. 30 totaled $4.54 billion.

Short-term volatility expectations, however, have fallen. Derivatives analytics firm Laevitas analyzed that, as of Sunday, the options market is only limitedly pricing in the price shock from the Oct. 14 release of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI). At-the-money implied volatility for seven-day options fell to about 32.01 percent from 34.5 percent about a week earlier. Thirty-day options stood at 34.66 percent, 90-day at 37.29 percent and 180-day at 38.24 percent, rising with longer maturities.

Applying seven-day implied volatility to Bitcoin’s then price implies an expected move of about 4.4 percent on a one-standard-deviation basis, or $3,700. That yields an expected weekly range of $79,750 to $87,150. The $80,000 level where puts are concentrated falls within that range, but $90,000, where calls are stacked, is above the upper bound.

The seven-day 25-delta skew, which shows the relative pricing of calls and puts, fell 4.38 points to -2.40 from +1.98 last week. Laevitas interpreted that as a fading concentration of call demand and a shift toward preference for puts. It also explained that, compared with the median of the past 52 weeks, the relative price of puts versus calls remains low.

Leverage in the futures market has eased somewhat. Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures was calculated at about $29.33 billion, down 1.9 percent over the past week. The annualized funding rate was 5.6 percent.

Market attention is focused on the September CPI due on Oct. 14. Markets expect the year-on-year rise in September consumer prices to accelerate to 3.7 percent from 3.4 percent in August, influenced by higher energy costs. Core inflation excluding food and energy is forecast to rise 0.2 percent month on month.

Laevitas analyzed that the probability of an October rate hike priced into markets has almost disappeared, but the probability of a December hike is about 85 percent. With oil prices and Treasury yields staying at high levels, inflation coming in above expectations could increase pressure across risk assets.

This week, after the CPI, the producer price index (PPI) and retail sales data are also cited as factors that could sway Bitcoin’s short-term direction. If inflation is higher than expected, the $78,000 to $80,000 zone could be tested again. If inflation pressure is lower than expected, it could support a rebound toward upper price levels. The key focus through the Oct. 16 options expiry is the economic data and shifts in derivatives-market positioning.