Bitcoin fell 2 percent over 24 hours to around $82,423.

Bitcoin is down 3 percent over the past week and has remained weak so far this month, Bitcoin Magazine reported on Oct. 12 local time.

October is typically seen as a favorable month for bitcoin. CoinGlass data show bitcoin ended higher in 8 of the past 10 Octobers. Last year, however, it entered a bear market after Oct. 10. At the time, bitcoin hit a record high of $126,080 but plunged as financial markets were hit by tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. Long positions were liquidated across the crypto market, with more than $19 billion liquidated in digital-asset-related positions.

Bitcoin then remained weak for most of 2026. Expectations for a rebound have picked up after it posted its best quarterly performance in recent years and ended September, a month that is typically weak, on a solid note. Despite early losses in October, some in the market say this month may have marked a bottom.

Japan asset management platform XWIN said in a contribution to CryptoQuant that "signals of a potential bottom are emerging." XWIN said that as of Oct. 12, the market was pricing in about an 18 percent chance of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike in October, and that Brent crude had fallen to around $103 a barrel from levels that had neared $110.

Rising international oil prices can weigh on bitcoin in the short term. Higher oil prices can fuel inflation worries, increasing expectations that the Fed could raise rates to curb them. Bitcoin prices were not significantly affected when the U.S. central bank raised rates last month, and instead rose after the announcement.

XWIN said "Uptober does not mean an uninterrupted rise" and that "a correction can lay the foundation for the next rise." It means short-term pullbacks can occur even if expectations for seasonal strength in October persist.

Other analysts point to bitcoin rising above its 365-day moving average and raise the possibility that the bear market has ended. In past market cycles, a break above the indicator signaled the start of a bull market. The market is watching whether bitcoin can overcome its recent decline and replicate October’s seasonal strength.