Bitcoin rebounded to around $83,600, but the market still puts more weight on the possibility of further declines.

Decrypto, a blockchain media outlet, reported that on Oct. 9 (local time) bitcoin touched $82,837 at one point. In prediction markets, the chance of a drop to $80,000 within October is seen at 67 percent.

The broader cryptocurrency market also entered a pause on the day. Total market capitalisation rose 2.1 percent to $2.89 trillion. Still, the rebound only recouped part of the recent losses, given the total stood above $3 trillion as recently as a week earlier. Bitcoin fell to $80,427 the previous day, its lowest level since early September, before edging higher.

Market sentiment cooled quickly. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 56, moving into neutral territory. The index stood at 71 on Oct. 2, in the greed zone, but the move showed risk appetite has slowed after a short-term correction.

Outflows continued from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $484.9 million leave on Oct. 8, the biggest daily outflow since June 25, and registered net outflows of $244.0 million on Oct. 9. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising to 5.32 percent, along with Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes hinting at the possibility of an additional rate hike by year-end, was cited as putting pressure on risk-asset sentiment.

Short-term signals also suggest the move has not fully turned. Bitcoin began the day’s daily trading at $81,711 and traded between $81,553 and $83,443. On the four-hour chart, the price remains below the 50-period exponential moving average, leaving no confirmation of a short-term trend reversal.

Prediction markets also lean cautious. Myriad reflected a 67 percent chance that bitcoin falls below $80,000 in October. The probability of reaching $77,500 was tallied at 40 percent, and the chance of $75,000 was put at 24 percent. In a separate weekly market, the probability of ending this week at $87,500 or higher was set at 49 percent, showing participants see both range-bound consolidation and further downside room rather than a strong resumption of the trend.

Still, it is hard to say the trend’s strength has been completely broken. The average directional index (ADX) on the daily chart was 37.9, above 25, which is regarded as a threshold for a valid trend. In directional indicators, DI+ indicating buying pressure was higher than DI- indicating selling pressure, allowing an interpretation that the broader move remains tilted upward even after the correction.

By price level, the area around $83,000 was presented as a short-term watershed. Luke Dins (루크 딘스) of Bitwise Europe said the $83,000 zone overlaps with the average ETF entry price and the prior breakout area above previous highs, making it the first test for the rebound. Dins said if this price level is regained, the $84,433 zone could open again. By contrast, the September high of $87,354.33 remains an upper resistance level that buying must break on a daily closing basis.

As a result, ETF fund flows, the rate environment, and whether bitcoin can re-establish itself in the $83,000 range are expected to emerge as key variables for the market for the time being, more than the short-term rebound itself.