XRP has rebounded after a recent sharp drop, but analysis says it is too early to conclude the correction is over.

On Oct. 10, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that XRP slid about 14 percent, falling from $1.52 to as low as $1.31, before partly recovering to around $1.40 on Oct. 11.

Market attention is focused on whether the rebound marks the start of a renewed trend or a temporary pullback before further declines. XRP gained 46 percent over the previous 90 days, and its market capitalisation expanded to $93.7 billion, accounting for about 3.3 percent of the overall cryptocurrency market. The pre-correction high was $1.6697.

On the chart, the key issue is not the strength of the rebound but whether a trend reversal is confirmed. On the 4-hour chart, recent moves are being interpreted as a corrective wave. Such pullbacks after a strong rise can take time to complete. As a result, the short-term yardstick is whether XRP is building a base for further gains or is in a broader sideways correction.

In the bullish scenario, XRP would need to break out of its correction channel and show a recovery in buying. In particular, $1.51945 was presented as the first confirmation zone. A clear break above that level, followed by holding it, would strengthen the bullish case. In that event, $1.72964, $2.11767 and $2.39911 were cited as the next target prices. It was also noted that until XRP moves above $1.51945, there is not enough technical confirmation to support an end to the correction.

In the bearish scenario, the possibility remains that the correction is not yet over. The recent rebound could be a temporary move within a larger corrective phase rather than a simple recovery. In particular, in the weekly trend, there is also an interpretation that the decline since the recent high could be the final stage of a larger correction, beyond a short-term plunge.

In that case, the key support is $1.37959. If XRP falls below that level, the chance of a deeper correction increases. The next downside target is $1.33098, and analysis says a larger drop could open the way to $1.10330. A warning was also raised that if it slips below $0.98427, the broader bullish structure itself could be invalidated. This zone was presented as a stronger bearish scenario possible when market conditions deteriorate sharply.

XRP's direction is also intertwined with moves in the overall cryptocurrency market, including bitcoin. If bitcoin enters a deeper correction, XRP could come under downward pressure even if its own chart looks relatively resilient. Since not all cryptocurrencies show the same pattern in a sell-off, the market needs to look not only at bitcoin's moves but also at XRP's own price structure.

Macro variables also remain. The Federal Reserve's Oct. 27-28 meeting is seen as a key event for gauging the direction of interest rates. Based on CME FedWatch, the market is pricing in the possibility of a rate hike at about 17.7 percent. If rates rise, borrowing costs increase and that could add pressure on risk assets such as XRP. As a result, rather than judging a shift in direction based only on a short-term rebound, the process of checking how key price levels and the macro environment move together is expected to continue.