Bitcoin's recent gains appear to be relying more on trading among existing holders than on fresh capital inflows. Cointelegraph, a blockchain outlet, reported on Oct. 8 that Glassnode estimated bitcoin realised market capitalisation rose by $12.8 billion over 30 days through Oct. 5, but new capital inflows in the same period were about $4.9 billion.

New inflows, tallied from corporate treasury bitcoin purchases, an increase in stablecoins and inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, were less than two-fifths of the increase in realised market capitalisation. Glassnode explained that the remaining increase reflected money already in the market changing hands at higher prices.

Price action also showed that structure. Bitcoin has tried four times since Sept. 21 to break above $87,000, but failed each time. Buying was blocked as sell orders thickened at the top of exchange order books. At the time of writing, bitcoin was around $83,000 and was down 1 percent so far this month.

The recent trend also differed from the earlier rally seen after the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. At the time, there was a similar gap between price gains and new inflows, but the scale of inflows itself was much larger than it is now.

Over the weekend, profit-taking by recent buyers also stood out. On the day bitcoin closed above $85,000 on a weekly closing basis for the first time since January, about 86 percent of coins moved to exchanges were held by short-term holders who had held them for less than 155 days. That was the highest daily share over the past year. The realised price corresponding to the short-term holders' average purchase price was about $78,250 as of Oct. 7, indicating they remain in profit overall.