Holdings in five XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) total $1.7 billion, according to an estimate. Some analysts say it is hard to expect a price rise based on holdings alone as the pace of fund inflows has recently slowed.

On Oct. 7 (local time), blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that XRP traded at about $1.43, down 5.46 percent over 24 hours.

Market data tracker Marketo estimated that tracked XRP spot ETFs held about 1.13 billion XRP worth $1.7 billion as of the Oct. 6 close. But net inflows on the day were only $3.14 million. Net inflows over the past week totalled about $3.9 million, a sharp slowdown from $112 million in inflows over the past month.

Fund flows were mixed by product. About $11 million flowed into the Bitwise product, but about $4.1 million and $3.3 million flowed out of Franklin and Canary, respectively. Grayscale and 21Shares showed little change. Bitwise inflows offset outflows from other products, keeping overall net inflows positive.

A decline in exchange-held balances does not necessarily mean immediate easing of selling pressure. As of Oct. 7, XRP Insight counted a total of 21.98 billion XRP across 699 public wallets at 24 exchanges. The figure includes cold wallets and some wrapped token reserves, making it difficult to view the total as immediately tradable supply.

Balances in these wallets fell by 26.5 million XRP, or about 0.13 percent, over the past seven days. Binance-linked balances fell by 33 million XRP, while Upbit-linked balances rose by 11.5 million XRP. The one-month decline reached 1.63 billion XRP, but XRP Insight said most of the change came from a storage transfer at Uphold. Excluding the impact from Uphold, the decline was only 75 million XRP, or about 0.54 percent. That is why it is hard to conclude that the drop in exchange wallet balances reflects investor withdrawals or shrinking circulating supply.

Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP from escrow on Oct. 1 and then re-escrowed 700 million XRP. The remaining 300 million XRP moved outside escrow, but that alone does not mean the amount was sold on the market.

In derivatives markets, futures trading far outpaced spot trading. CoinGlass data showed XRP's 24-hour futures turnover at $3.97 billion as of Oct. 7, about five times spot turnover of $815.6 million. Open interest stood at $3.35 billion. Turnover alone makes it difficult to determine whether new short positions or the closing of existing positions drove the decline.

Bitcoin also traded at about $83,100 on the day, below the Oct. 6 reference price of $85,557.56. With the broader market weakening, assessing XRP supply and demand requires looking not only at total ETF holdings but also at the strength of new inflows, cross-exchange token movements and changes in derivatives positioning.

Outflows from some ETFs have been confirmed, but the market's main sellers have not been identified. Key factors ahead are whether ETF net inflows expand again and how exchange balances, excluding storage transfers, move.