Bitcoin has risen more than 84 percent since January 2024 despite a high-rate environment in which U.S. Treasury yields neared 5.3 percent. Rising Treasury yields can offer an alternative source of returns for investment funds, raising the hurdle for investing in speculative assets such as bitcoin. But no clear correlation has been confirmed to suggest that rate increases directly caused bitcoin's recent decline.

On Oct. 7 (local time), bitcoin traded below $84,000. As of 1425 UTC, it was about $83,086. The nominal yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell to 5.27 percent on Oct. 6, slightly down from 5.31 percent a day earlier. The Oct. 5 yield was the highest in daily records since January 2017.

The 10-year real Treasury yield, adjusted for inflation, also stood at 2.91 percent on Oct. 6. It was lower than 2.95 percent the day before, but the Oct. 5 reading was the highest over the same period. Such high Treasury yields can provide investors with interest-bearing alternatives, raising the benchmark for expected returns on risk assets such as bitcoin.

The historical relationship between bitcoin and interest rates is not simple. CryptoSlate analysed 2,435 matching daily data points from January 2017 to Oct. 5, 2026 and found that linear correlations between bitcoin returns and changes in nominal and real Treasury yields, and dollar index returns, were all weak. An analysis of 682 data points from Jan. 11, 2024 to Oct. 5, 2026, after spot bitcoin ETF trading began, also showed no strong negative correlation.

Bitcoin rose 84.2 percent from Jan. 10, 2024, the day before spot U.S. bitcoin ETF trading began, to Oct. 5, 2026. Over the same period, the nominal 10-year U.S. rate rose 127 basis points and the real rate rose 113 basis points. That means bitcoin prices can rise while rates increase. But these figures alone do not allow a conclusion that spot ETFs drove bitcoin's gains.

Monthly analysis produced different results. Using 116 months from February 2017 to September 2026, correlation coefficients between bitcoin and changes in nominal rates were -0.081, real rates were -0.228 and the dollar index was -0.164. In the 32 months from February 2024 to September 2026 after spot ETF trading began, the figures were +0.207, +0.126 and +0.002, respectively. But with a sample of only 32 months, it is difficult to conclude this reflects a structural shift in the relationship.

The analysis used Coinbase bitcoin prices, nominal and real Treasury yields from the Federal Reserve's FRED, and the dollar index distributed by Yahoo Finance. Missing values were excluded, and because of weekends and holidays, returns between common dates can include moves across multiple days. The closing times also differ across datasets, so the analysis does not compare intraday moves at the same time.

As the 10-year Treasury yield nears 5.3 percent, the appeal of near risk-free return alternatives that bitcoin must compete against has increased. But it is difficult to explain bitcoin's recent price drop on rate increases alone. Since the correlation between rates and bitcoin varies by period and analysis frequency, rates should be viewed as a macroeconomic variable for assessing investment appeal rather than a direct cause of price moves.