An analysis says a decline in XRP held on exchanges does not necessarily lead directly to a supply shock or a sharp price jump. It argues Ripple still controls tens of billions of XRP and escrowed tokens continue to be released on a fixed schedule.

On Oct. 5 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported growing expectations among XRP holders that continued withdrawals from exchanges could leave trading platforms such as Binance and Coinbase short of tokens available for sale.

Some say a drop in exchange balances is not enough when the supply structure is considered. The key is not whether XRP disappears from exchanges, but how much inventory remains immediately sellable relative to incoming demand.

Ripple's latest disclosure shows the company controlled 37,656,000,000 XRP as of June 30. That equals about 37.7 percent of the original total issuance of 100,000,000,000. Of that, 32,600,000,000 was locked in on-chain escrow, and only about 5,056,000,000 was counted as held outside escrow. That means claims in some parts of the market that Ripple holds half of the XRP supply do not match the current figures.

Ripple put 55,000,000,000 XRP into escrow in 2017 and has operated a structure under which up to 1,000,000,000 can be released each month. Unused amounts can be placed into new escrow contracts, which can push back the point at which they reach the market. This process continued on Oct. 1. At that time, 1,000,000,000 XRP was released through four transactions and Ripple later locked 700,000,000 back into escrow. As a result, 300,000,000 of the total monthly amount released remained without a new lockup, but that does not mean it immediately led to market selling.

Exchange liquidity indicators also showed a different trend from expectations of a supply shortage. In recent Binance-related data, the XRP Binance scarcity index fell to about -0.94. That was the lowest level since January 2025 and was presented as a sign that XRP on Binance has become relatively more plentiful.

Ripple's escrow structure is still seen as a key variable in the debate over XRP supply. But it does not give Ripple unlimited amounts, nor does it allow the company to release escrowed XRP at an arbitrary time. At the same time, repeated monthly unlocks mean that some locked supply can gradually become accessible to the market over time.

Ultimately, XRP's price depends on the balance between new demand and how willing holders are to sell. Ripple's remaining holdings can affect that calculation, but the current data alone make it hard to conclude that Ripple holdings make a future XRP shortage impossible, or that XRP cannot rise because exchanges will always have supply available.